Replies to post #99928 on Biotech Values

[ghmm]

ITMN:

The CC had about as much excitement as a late September ballgame between the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals.


No joke but I actually fell asleep during the call (I think just a coincidence and more to do with me :-)).

That being said I will continue my tone of saying its way too early to call 191 (boosted) dead and to say Roche is going to abandon ship. I'm sure someone will keep this post around to let me know if Roche terminates :-). I'll point out a few things to support my contention:
1-The 2B (boosted) trial actually sounds to have a more firm timetable for starting then past calls.
2-The less negative interpretation (and what I tend to think is happening) on the INFORM trial initiation could be as simple as they want to analyze the 1B 12 week arms to determine how best to dose/design the longer duration INFORM study. Given that the 1B 12 week arms likely won't be out and analyzed till perhaps Q4 this year it would be highly optimistic to start a new INFORM trial incorporating these results until 2011.

As previously mentioned for some reason :-) I didn't hear the question on the 2nd generation PI so take this as a general comment. I've noticed Dan Welch being very closed lipped on events with both positive and negative outcomes so I would caution reading too much into that.

I don't have a financial interest at this time so I think I am relatively unbiased :-). I actually think ITMN is a bad investment at this point (I personally would cut the burn much more and still try to partner Pirfenidone even at giving up a lot of upside if you can get someone to carry a lot of the costs).