Replies to post #99665 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

I described the algorithm in #msg-46578876.

Thanks - I had missed that.

It makes my "speculation" look pretty good - I nailed it. :-)

DD,

Do you still think that the launch of an AG warrants a 40% discount to valuation?

ij

[turtlepower]

If SNY does decide to go with an AG any guesses on how long it would take for the AG to enter the market and who the likely candidate to produce the AG would be? TIA

BTW on the subject of TEVA's ANDA if it is held in limbo for a while and then approved Sandoz would benefit tremendously since m-enox would already have captured a substantial portion of the market by then and they would have a higher take of the revenues because of the multiple generics clause. MNTA should prbly have had a clause in the agreement with regard to market share ie if m-enox share of the lovenox pie was greater than 50% they would get a bigger share or something along those lines.

Edit : Of course the reduction in revenue as a result of the competition would have to be considered but that will likely to be smaller than the percentage of revenue sandoz would get if another generic is approved.