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Replies to post #99651 on Biotech Values

Replies to #99651 on Biotech Values
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DewDiligence

07/25/10 5:42 PM

#99658 RE: go seek #99651

Will Teva's Lovenox ANDA be approved and if so when? Any probabilities on that one?

Referring to the table in #msg-52460245, cases 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8 have been eliminated from the realm of possibility, leaving only cases 1, 2, and 4.

If you divide the probabilities in the table for cases 1, 2, and 4 by the aggregate probability of these three cases (58%), the results are 10%, 59%, and 31% for cases 1, 2, and 4, respectively. I think these numbers are reasonable estimates for the probability that Teva’s Lovenox ANDA is rejected, undecided, and approved, respectively, by 1/21/11.