Mpower,
While I also think Momenta will rise substantially over the next few periods, the anchor in pricing won't be the threat of competition but the fear that any new competitive entry would drastically cut Momenta royalty percentage rate.
I don't have a fear that Sandoz won't hold its own in the sales area, but there's a world of difference in Momenta's royalty take.
Right now, Momenta's stock would increase drastically if we knew the road blocks were substantial for Amphstar and Teva.
Under this collaboration, Sandoz makes certain payments to us. As mutually agreed, we provide, and Sandoz pays us, for internal expenses incurred in scientific, technical and/or management work. Sandoz is also responsible for funding substantially all of the other ongoing development and commercialization costs and legal expenses incurred with respect to injectable enoxaparin, subject to termination rights upon reaching agreed upon limits. In addition, Sandoz will, in the event there are no third party competitors marketing a Lovenox-Equivalent Product, as defined in the collaboration agreement, provide to us a share of the profits from M-Enoxaparin. This profit share percentage is between 40%– 50%. If another interchangeable generic Lovenox is on the market, we are entitled to receive a royalty on net sales by Sandoz. That royalty rate ranges from high single to low double digits. If the only competitor to M-Enoxaparin is an authorized generic, we receive hybrid economics—a royalty up to a specified sales level, then a profit share on net sales above the sales cut-off. In addition, if certain milestones are achieved with respect to injectable enoxaparin under certain circumstances, Sandoz may also make milestone payments to us which would reach $55.0 million if all such milestones are achieved. In all of these scenarios, a portion of the development expenses and certain legal expenses which have exceeded a specified amount will be offset against the profit-sharing amounts, royalties and milestone payments. Sandoz may also offset a portion of any product liability costs and certain other expenses arising from patent litigation against the profit-sharing amounts, royalties and milestone payments.
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