Replies to post #99316 on Biotech Values

[stockbettor]

EMIS/NVS’ oral calcitonin bombs in phase-3

As I was driving to my office yesterday morning, I was mentally reviewing my stock holdings (including EMIS) and the thought struck me, at random, that today would be a good day for the FDA to approve MNTA's generic lovenox. My next thought was - no way, why would the FDA choose a hot summer Friday in July to do so - and went back to considering whether I could complete the sale of the rest of my shares in EMIS. The previous friday, post-close, EMIS issued a press release suggesting that another financing was a strong possibility. For me this was the last straw - another dilutive financing sure to trigger ratchets in a convertible note and warrants held by EMIS's largest shareholder - and I resolved to liquidate my remaining shares over the next week. I succeeded in selling 70% of the shares Mon. - Wed. but none on Thur. when total share volume was only 4,500.

Arrived at the office, and the first new email to hit my inbox was the calcitonin press release from EMIS which you linked to. I was completely out of EMIS shortly after the market opened. Around 11, my wife called me to ask me where we were going for our big celebration tonight. Since she holds (still) a few thousand EMIS shares (which I had advised her to sell), I thought she was being facetious, but she she sounded in remarkably good spirits. When I questioned her further, she responded that I had obviously not seen the MNTA press release and trading halt.

Needless to say, we had a excellent celebration last night

Thanks Dew for the great info and insight you have provided on MNTA over the years. My wife thanks you as well as she owns even more MNTA shares than I do.

[hmpa]

I was always amazed that Novartis would spend a substantial amount of money running phase trials for Calcitonin (no matter injectable, oral or intranasal) as an osteoarthritis treatment; there had never been any evidence of a link between the blood levels, etc. of Calcitonin and the disease progression or severity. The continuing osteoporosis trial is, however, interesting as this is the first attempt ever to study this medicine (Calcitonin) - which is used for decades already - in well controlled conditions. Based on drug plasma levels, etc. there is no doubt that the agent gets delivered - the question is if it works.