Bulls were right for 18years, so there is no absolute reason Bears can't be right for the next 18years.That is regards an overall DOWN trend with Bear bounces all along the way.Or it could be short and hideous like in 29 when market gave up 95% in 35 or so months then had a 5 year rally, and then faded again. But the batman is a joke, he has been so unrelentingly wrong to such comical levels that any who made money with him going into 2000 are buried now.
Marv... as for contrarian indicators, how about me? I'm a regular poster on SI and I've been called that so many friggin times over the past three years I could just scream! - - This week for something new, (since I have been relentlessly playing the gold sector this past year) I decided to go long on a copper stock, copper futures looked to be in an accumulation phase, COT Report looked bullish and I felt there was very little downside in speculating on a stock that has a 5%+ dividend yield.
Now the stock has a 5-1/2%+ yield, and as of yesterday I'm stopped out.
So what have I learned?
1) Commodities that are used in commercial applications aren't in big demand-- copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc.
Business spending isn't happening, yet-- -- outta favour.
2) Commodities that are used at the consumer level are hot-- coffee, cocoa, wheat, gold...
So lemme ask you again, what part of this post can be used as a contrarian indicator? - - Advances and Declines for yesterday -----------NYSE-------Nasdaq Advances---820 (24%)---980 (29%) Declines--2415 (71%)--2319 (70%) Unchanged--154 (4%)-----11 (0%)
Here's another question; how many 90% down days have we had in the past three years compared to other bear markets? Two? Compared to more than a dozen from the 1970s?
Anyway, don't be so quick at labeling some of the best posters on SI contrarian indicators... if anything they've got something good if not profitable to say: #reply-18076758
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