Replies to post #99122 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Handicapping the Lovenox ANDA’s During Next Six Months

Simplifying assumptions:

• I’ve ignored Amphastar’s ANDA because I don’t think it has a serious chance (#msg-46994189).

• For MNTA and TEVA, I’ve reduced the universe of each company’s outcomes to three: approval, rejection, and undecided.

It follows that there are 2^3=8 cases to consider. The table below
lists these 8 cases in descending order of desirability for MNTA.

 
                               Probability of 
                              Indicated Result 
                             Before 21-Jan-2011 
  1. MNTA approved; 
     TEVA rejected                  6% 
  
  2. MNTA approved; 
     TEVA undecided                34% 
  
  3. MNTA undecided;  
     TEVA rejected                  2% 
  
 †4. MNTA and TEVA approved        18% 
  
 †5. MNTA and TEVA undecided       36% 
  
  6. MNTA and TEVA rejected         4% 
  
  7. MNTA rejected; 
     TEVA undecided                 * 
  
  8. MNTA rejected; 
     TEVA approved                  * 
                                  ==== 
                                  100% 
  
 *Less than 0.5%. 
 †It’s debatable whether case 4 or case 5 is better for MNTA.

JMHO, FWIW