Replies to post #32038 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

CHainik, are you joining the reading challenged? No significant rally until later this month, bump like earlier this week and twice as big, maybe, but we need to get earnings at least partially out of the way (and even get some positive surprises). While I have 10/22 as the nominal date, QLGC could be the trigger (the shot over the bow) when they report that everything is still fine in their quarter on 10/16. My current guess is that they will only ignite a bump like this week and the actual bottom will be later (sell the news?). They did so in mid July as well.

Zeev

[mlsoft]

chainik....

As has been the case lately, I will be playing tomorrow by ear and will wait to see what happens. I saw what I took as signs of the PPT at work this afternoon and again tonight, and that is the reason I abandoned my short positions late this afternoon when I would usually have carried them overnight in that position.

The employment report will have a lot to do with the mood tomorrow, and I expect a bad report, even after it gets a fresh coat of lipstick. The evening before a much watched report is a time when you can forget watching the futures - by the time the report comes out, they will probably be down a bit, but not much - unless the PPT is in the game. Should the report be as bad as I expect, I look for decent selling early to take the NAZ to new lows below 1160, probably to around 1150 or a little below. That is where I will be the most vigilant looking for the PPT.

So far, the market has done pretty much what I had called for earlier (#msg-495805), and I still expect new lows soon although we may (but don't have to) get another short bounce first since we are very oversold. I have said all along that warnings season would take us down to new lows and earnings season with negative guidance would take us even lower. For now, I see no reason to change that view, other than I now think it will take a bit longer to get to my target lows - perhaps sometime in late October or November.

mlsoft