GOOG ER today AH and AAPL ER Tuesday, I'm expecting GOOG to go down whereas BIDU goes up due to GOOG's mess in China, AAPL could go up due to its inovative design (iCover, lol just kidding) but I would wait til Monday
Re: SBUX - Solid support confirmed; significant resistance overhead ...
14-RSI in $SBUX 's WEEKLY chart just finished registering a double-bottom. Combined with positive signals in CCI, Wm%R and CMF, and sustained buying pressure in A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines, all pointing towards $24.00 as solid support.
Note though that a serious overhead resistance at $28.35 may represent the next significant hurdle, IMHO:
Re: $MSWORLD ex USA, $MSEAFE (Developed countries), and $MSEMF (Emerging Markets)
Below are charts of Morgan Stanley Investment International (MSCI) indices on world markets, excluding USA (" $MSWORLD"); that of developed countries, including Europe, Australasia, and Far East (",$MSEAFE"); and that of Emerging Markets (" $MSEMF")- These indices encompass the vast majority of world markets (about 98%).
A few factoids: 1 - While the US market represents about 2/5 of the world markets, that of developed countries represents another 2/5, and that of emerging markets (formerly "developing countries") represents the last 1/5 portion; 2 - While portfolio managers use the $SPX to compare performance against specific financial assets (usually domestic), international asset performance is gauged against these other two indices, depending upon the predominant weigh given to US domestic, developed, or emerging markets.
Some important technical points about the charts: 1 - Values are expressed at market close (EOD) - While the candle will remain the same until the market close that day, it will acquire a new shape only upon market close on the next day. You veterans know this, but this is a humble reminder to the more novice traders out there. 2 - Weekly intervals were chosen over daily or monthly time frames to best balance between crucial market commitments against noisy market reactions. Once the week closes, we are assuming that the candle reflects the sum total commitment of world positions for the underlying index for that week; 3 - A period of 5 year should encompass most relevant cycles and year-over-year technical reactions; 4 - The index is represented within the top, main chart; 5 - A relative strength expression of the index vs. the $SPX (e.g.: $MSWORLD:$SPX) appears in black line underneath the main chart; 6 - The underlying index and $SPX each appear superimposed over one another OVER the said black line of their relative strength, in order to reinforce this comparative visual study.
Last points: a) All questions or requests will be entertained as time permitting in private messaging (preferably); b) These charts have been newly added on PAGE 9 within the following organization: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 ; c) Your vote is special to me. It nourishes the motivation that feeds the brain that nurtures the passion behind these charts.
Best trading to you, my friend.
Your friendly technician,
- Dalcindo
PS: Anyone noted that both world market (i.e.: as a total sum) and developed countries indices have an RSI that recently confirmed a BEARISH reversal, whereas that of developing countries index has posted a BULLISH confirmation. Just saying ... (wink, wink)
MSCI World (ex USA) Index (EOD) ($MSWORLD) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
MSCI EAFE Index (EOD) ($MSEAFE) - Developed Countries - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
In the big picture, the H&S is inverted, but lacks the "body" in the upper part of this anatomy. Meaning that there are no preceding body from which the left shoulder, the head, and now the right shoulder has formed.
The lack of precedence would make it less probable for this H&S to get validated, IMHO.
Instead, I believe that the historical high in late 2008 and recency-low in late 2009 (see chart below) have bracketed the most significant borders within which the crowd psychology will play heavily. Technically, the convergence at high and low points have defined significant borders for the bearish and bullish channels.
I just re-drew below a weekly $GOOG chart for the big picture since inception:
GOOG - 7-Yr., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
--------------------------------- Message in reply to: Posted by: IIIverson Member Level Date: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 11:07:16 AM In reply to: dalcindo who wrote msg# 2068 Post # of 2074 Send a link via email Share on Facebook Tweet this post Dalcindo, while I agree about the bearishness of GOOG and chart it almost the same way... I was cant help but notice the BIG PICTURE looks like a REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS... over the last 3-4 years. Its def the long term BIG PICTURE but it would mean that GOOG would head back up from here...
Just a thought. I always try to look at it from all angles. ---------------------------------
As we are opening a new trading week, the following WEEKLY S&P500 chart is suggesting a very decisive trading session.
As of this writing (0210am on Monday 23 AUG 2010), this benchmark is sitting right at the lower border of its bullish channel.
Two weeks ago, we pointed out a BEARISH RSI per 14-RSI's failure to rally above its 45-EMA.
The next technical litmus test rests upon this critical step - whether SPX will break through its support and continue its tethered course within the BEARISH channel, or contradict its recent bearish course and remain within the confines of its bullish channel.
Re: $USD, GOLD - Dollar On Brink Of Rallying ... Or Else, Go GOLD:
As of this EOD (24 AUG 2012) in DAILY chart below, the Dollar index closed at $83.14 after vacillating around its 38.2% Fib level (calculated from bottom of late DEC 2009 = $74.23 to rally top of early JUN 2010 = $88.71).
Today's corresponding RSI at EOD printed 57.57 from a deep rally in early AUG 2010. If RSI showed any weakness over the next several days, one should be concerned about the index inability to complete an EARLY bullish reversal signal, which should be achieved ideally with an RSI topping ABOVE its 66.67 mark. Note that the qualifier and operative word is EARLY reversal signal. Completion would later be achieved with a RSI decline and rally from ABOVE the 40 mark.
While concerns over the European market are lingering (i.e.: weakness in Germany, renewed concerns about Greek banks, today's S&P downgrade of Ireland debt), there are domestic concerns within the US that may cause further risk aversion AWAY from the US Dollar, which may be considered as a diverging event, considering that broad or world market risk aversions have usually sought out safe heaven in the greenback.
In light of such divergence, one should suspect that the ultimate beneficiary might be GOLD.
As mentioned in a earlier post, look for GOLD reaching its $1,300 level if such scenario was to unfold:
Whether or not the $SPX is setting up for a renewed decline is a matter under development. However, the chart below is shaping up to conclude a Head and Shoulder formation. As this is forming up, recent decline has stalled at what may act as this formation's neckline.
Looking at the big technical picture (10-year, weekly chart below), the benchmark seems to have reached a point of peak performance over the past months.
While the high achieved in mid-April 2010 brought the index to its ultimate 61.8$ Fibo level, the recent rally attempts seems to be falling short of the same stamina. Instead, the 200 weekly EMA seems to be the limiting factor at this point, causing the recent high to carve out a lower high. Taking the lower volume indicator in concert with this weakening picture, there may be cause for concern as to whether the rally can sustain itself any higher, especially if volume continues to wane.
The second chart below points to a technical hurdle overhead, which seems to provide an added graphic representation of this weakening discussed above.
The third chart only adds to the technical picture.
Overall, I believe that unless volume picks up, we are likely to face significant resistance, at best, or a resumption of prior decline.
Furthermore, I believe that, although the recent rally over the past months were significant and impressive, the predominent trend remains bearish.
Re: QID - A "QID" Pro Quo Reversal, Or Is It For Good?
The QID is hitting the bottom border of its bearish channel. While it is clear in the chart that the bearish channel has played a great magnet strength than the bullish channel, this chart is showing several indicators that are nearing a reversal point.
First, the QID itself has been tip-toeing at the bottom of its bearish chanel, as just indicated above, and its next step looks like it wants to repeat that same gait pattern which have preceded range-bound rallies.
Second, the CCI, Wm%R and CMF have formed discreet divergences that reinforce the technical hint of an imminent rally - The strenght of which remains to be determined.
Third, the PPO signal line - itself in a positive divergence - is signaling a high probability of a rally as it nearly crosses over its signal line.
Finally, in fourth point, comes the ADX which has waned to signal that the negative strength that had been in force over the recent decline has now lost steam.
On the buying/selling front, the A/D and OBV lines are non-commital features in terms of early indication of a rally, but the ChiOsc line, has made the first stride by overcoming its predominent 21-EMA down-trending line.
OVERALL - While the QID has fallen through the soft ground of its prior bullish channel, and now seems magnetized to the confines of the bearish channel, the likely rally to which I have alluded will not trump the predominent bearish feature of the chart. Because this is a shorting tool, the QID points to an overall predominantly bullish market. Therefore, it would take some unusual fundamental deterioration for this chart to pierce above the upper border of its bearish channel, meaning that until a devastating news happen to the market, it remains a safe bet to target entries and exits based on the borders of the bearish channel.
--------------------------------- From Chart Insert: 05 OCT 2010 - TECH-NOTE: See where RSI signaled a trend deterioration: its support line reverted to resistance as price converted from bullish-bound to now bearish-bound channel Hence, BEARISH channel established in NOV 2009 remains in force. Watch for "Pre-Decline Pattern" as well. - DALCINDO ---------------------------------
Chart reached technical resistance with channel from 13 FEB 2010 still in force. RSI remains unable to carry values to bullish range; secondary indicators getting taut to the overbought side.
OVERALL - Data favors decline for now - Election is likely to have the last word and indicate the first, new directional path for this and other broad indices.
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