Replies to post #25958 on Profunds index and sector trading (PRO)

[odiemutt]

Elections in Iraq on the 31st. There's something like 100+ candidates... so what if someone wins with 7% of the vote? The other 93% will not support the winner since they didn't vote for them.

Plus, I'd lay odds the winner won't survive more than 2 weeks given the way they're killing off the candidates.

I don't think the elections are meaningful for US markets because nothing will really change after they're over and I expect most people in the US feel that way.

[Ek]

Steve: the iraqi elections are quite meaningful in a couple of ways.

1. as it happens in most situations, things get nasty as time approaches. if there are american casualties, it depresses the sentiment here.

2. secondly, any significant upheaval causes oil traders to go bonkers.

both conditions result in funds "holding" for clearer skies. i am not saying that the markets are dependent upon this event mid to long term. i am only cautious this week, and believe the serious money is not taking any undue risk of a nasty monday surprise. i could be dead wrong, and hope i am so, as i am fairly long here.

ek

[otraque]

Steve, via trader talk via Bloomberg, traders are very tuned into the Iraq elections.
And they are talking the "uncertainty" rule on assumption the elections happen without major negative events occuring, market rallies.
Their assumption it goes o.k. is based on what? i have NO idea.