Replies to post #98686 on Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

I agree here. The value enhancing events would be:

1. Agreement with the FDA on the pivotal trial design.
2. Full enrollment (marginal as everyone knows this trial will enroll very quickly).
3. Results from trial
4. NDA
5. Approval

In this particular case, 2-5 will provide less added value than is typical for most drugs, because any partner understands that the drug has very low clinical/regulatory risk even at this very early stage.

That means that immediately after step 1. is the logical time to partner. So absent any sub-optimal behavior from Harvey, that's the timing I would predict, which fits in with your prediction too.

Peter

[bladerunner1717]

rkw,

I'm wondering what are reasonable expectations on a deal for a drug like 534. Lets assume, for argument's sake, that the drug could move to first-line therapy for CML and be used in solid tumor indications. So potentially, we're talking about a $3-4 billion/year drug here. Could we be looking at an Erbitux/BMY kind of deal? (Imclone had a six billion market cap, as I recall, before Erbitux was ever approved.)

What kind of deal do you think Berger wants, assuming he gets 534 into pivotals before signing a deal? The Erbitux/BMY may be an unrealistic prototype, but what is realistic, in your opinion?


Bladerunner