Replies to post #858 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[BTH]

You said:

Perhaps the next update brings the MRK payment confirmation. No doubt an incremental positive, but not explosive.

To me, it sounds like you are saying the market is "wondering" about the Merck payment to Ariad, and therefore, once we all see it in Ariad's bank account on the income sheets, the market will be relieved and the stock will go higher.

For me, it's quite obvious the money is there. I have no worries abuot that whatsoever.

Ariad is going down because there are no reasons to be an active buyer in the name now. If Ariad announced soon that the Phase 3 final analysis will be out by, say, October... that would be a reason to start accumulating. Everything is, is just a gamble versus the overall market. Sure, Ariad could announce a partner, or something else. BUT, THAT is a gamble versus the broad market. In this case, the broad market is winning. Biotechs are perfoming terribly, and there's no desperate reason to own this company after it failed to muster an NDA filing at the 2nd interim.

Personally, I think this company (if Berger wasn't around) to be a great buyout candidate at $12/share. But, it would have to be Merck. I dont see another buyer because of the partnerships and problems that it could lead to.

Kinda like EXEL. Tons of compounds, all partnered out to tons of companies....that company will never be bought.