Replies to post #25768 on Profunds index and sector trading (PRO)

[was Steve]

i see what you mean. it sounded good until the third statement. then a dark cloud blew in

[was Steve]

thanks for the namo update. i was too frurstrated to look at stuff like that. i just knew i was stayign long and wrong. my only decision was which fund woudl be my poison

[Dimension]

Tarm,
i am confused, the numbers you show appears to favor a bounce, or am i reading that incorrectly.

Right now i am leaning towards a bounce...but not confidently. Lots of arguements can be made by both bulls and bears...one thing i think however, this week may be an important one in determining whether we head lower fast or get a nice bounce in a couple of days.

Bullish indications:
-Bradley turn date – 1/25. Given the markets have been declining prior to the forthcoming Bradley turn date, it implies we may be coming up on an ST bottom.
- Gann Angle Cycle cluster day is 1/27…again, the implied direction should be opposite the trend leading into that date.
- NDX on RSI(5) buy.
- VIX hitting up on it’s upper channel (since VIX has not settled in an observable range, i have been using it's year long downward channel as a guage).
-Specialist Short Ratio under 23%, public short ratio above than 50%, Odd Lot short ratio above 10% - all bullish.
- Market Vane Bullish consensus 65%
- Nasdaq McCellan Osc
- QQQQ feb options support is 38.
- ^MNX OI on nearby puts VERY lopsided..heavy between 150 and 155, which would equate to NDX 1500 to 1550, right around where we are now.

Bearish indications:
-Commercials are net short S&P, NASDAQ and Dow
-Charts of indices are showing technical damage, more than just a “healthy retrace” can be argued by bears.
-All majors below 50ema on above average volume and not too far from testing their 200ema
-Today NDX closed below 200ema on heavy volume. Also seeing a 20/50ema crossover
-Dow showing Three Black Crows as of Fridays close.
-NDX appears to be showing TBC today as well, as of today's close.
-nasdaq Summation Index making lower lows.
-Some very heavy and weird activity on MNX contracts Friday. For example, looks like a couple of calendar spreads or strangles using WAY out of money contracts. That’s very odd and may suggest an institution is thinking this mkt could head down fast. I AM NOT SURE how to interpret this yet, the action on the MNX was very heavy for Feb and March contracts, which is not typical, and that weirdness worries me a bit.