My feeling at this moment is more along the lines of the latter. If things go as I have layed out, then it will be a combination of things:
1) Long time running oversold condition
2) Prices will look cheap and reasonable
3) An attitude of "it cannot get much worse"
4) Seasonality (Christmas rally)
Again, that is IF things go according to plan.
The 2 main underlying issues going into 2005 that could change that outcome...
1) Social Security reform of some sort gets passed (rally)
2) Iraq escalates or Iran goes awry (plunge)
There are others such as terror attack, nuclear threat i.e NK or some other rogue nation, housing market decline, tax reform or additional tax breaks, consumer pull back, etc., etc. but we will call these "wildcards" as they are not part of the 2 main underlying issues going into this year. They are not yet active ingredients...
The U$D thing, the oil thing, rising rates, deficits, debts and imbalances, slowing growth, etc. are already considered and built into my model and the weight around the ankles so to speak...
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