I think it's likely that the FDA will take a risk/benefit approach here. If that is the case the lorcaserin's marginal efficacy as monotherapy (I am sure it would do fine combined withe phentermine) might give the FDA pause and Qnexa's better efficacy might overcome any safety concerns that the FDA might find.
The Arena safety database is larger than either Qnexa or Contrave, but then they both use existing approved drugs.
Here's one take from a few months ago - for some reason this analyst likes Contrave, but gives them all a good chance of approval:
www.in-thought.com/resources/ObesityPartnering-Mar10.pdf
I personally don't understand where the safety concern on psychiatric issues for Qnexa is coming from, but it seems to be quite common among analysts. Seems to me like Contrave would have the same or worse issues - there is a black box on buproprion on this issue, whereas there is not on topiramate or phentermine.
I have a modest VVUS position from lower levels. I personally wouldn't risk much on any of these companies until we get a better indication of the FDA's mood here.
Peter
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