Replies to post #83868 on Apple Inc (AAPL)

[SMaturin]

All this talk of tablets replacing other computers is really rather absurd.

When covered wagons were the best way to ship goods over land, steam locomotives were newfangled, amazing, expensive, and scary technology. Curmudgeons said, "Why would anybody ever want to go faster than 20 miles an hour?"

When trains were cheap and plentiful, that stinky automobile came along, but nobody could afford it besides rich playboys.

"If God had wanted man to fly, he would have given him wings."

Today we have an amazing range of personal transport available, from rollerblades to bicycles, to motor scooters, to sports cars, to aircraft, motorhomes, and semi trucks.

Each has its unique usefulness and appeal. Just because hybrid cars are available today does not mean Mack trucks will no longer be sold.

The same evolution is happening in computers. Mainframes, supercomputers, desktops, laptops and tablets can all share the same "information superhighway," each serving its own special purpose for the individual user. A sportbike (ipad) is not competing with a minivan (desktop) in terms of the users' needs, but complementing one another. Many of us will end up owning both, because we use them in different ways.

Today I received my iPad. So now I can start carrying it in a tank bag on my Ducati when the weather is nice, rather than lugging my laptop in a backpack in my truck to go to work.

I do not expect to give up using a desktop at work, a laptop at home and on vacation, and an iPhone, and now an iPad, everyday, everywhere. I do not expect to quit riding a bicycle or my motorbike (fast, but little storage) just because I have a truck (lotsa carrying capacity, slow in the traffic), nor to get rid of my truck because I have smaller, more nimble and more economical means of getting around.

Isn't Capitalism great to give us so many wonderful ways to improve and enjoy our lives?

[sinclap]

Sorry, desktop PC's ain't going away. Sales volumes are steady. You need to walk inside a Micro Center. Their BYO business is the lion share of their sales. You may want to call New Egg asking why they still advertise BYO components since the market has dried up.

Here is a note why desktops(except for Mac desktops) are not going away.
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I really can't see myself using a laptop as my primary computer, as they are now. For a number of reasons:

The screens are too small, and they're *way down* next to the keyboard. I like having a big honking 22" desktop monitor.

The keyboards are horrible.

Touchpads suck compared to a mouse.

You can get much more bang for buck, in terms of CPU, memory, etc., with a desktop. And they're much easier to upgrade.

I hate the idea of my precious data (or even my non-precious data) being on a fragile laptop. And it isn't just that they can get dropped or stolen. They seem to die at a much higher rate than desktops, which never seem to die. I'm guessing its the concentrated heat and poor ventilation in those little cases.

At this point, my desktop PC has taken the place of TV and stereo (hey! thats an idea for an impending-obsolescence article!). I copied all my CDs on to the hard-drive as high quality files, because its much more compact, and its easier to find stuff that way (its nice to have humongous hard drives). I suppose I could get a TV tuner, but all my favorite shows are online anyway. Anyway, as a TV/stereo replacement, a laptop with a tiny screen and mediocre speakers just wouldn't be as attractive an option.

I do have a laptop for those occasions when I need to have something portable- for example to write or watch movies while traveling. Its an ancient Pentium III but it does the job. Personally though I like being away from a computer sometimes...

[Laize]

I've done my DD on Apple (and their competitors). No one here thinks my arguments against its perpetual growth are sound, and that's fine. It's not my money.

My argument wasn't against Apple. It was about the earlier graph saying Desktops would be a smaller market share than anything else. I think that's a fallacy.

There are dozens of things you can do on a Desktop that you simply can't do on a Tablet. I think the fallacy lies in the fact that that Desktops aren't part of the market that study was graphing.

If you want me to guess "where the puck is going to be" it's going to be in Cloud Computing. Online applications, storage, streaming media, etc. The mobile market is simply a step towards that end.

[dslarsen]

"A sea change is always underway in electronics, whether it be in the realm of computers, smartphones, or digital cameras, whatever. It's the nature of the beast. "


What came to mind when I read that was my 7-transistor radio. When I was a kid, I had a little transistor radio that hung on my bed post, and it had a tiny 9-volt battery "simulator".. it looked like a little rectangular 9 volt battery, complete with the contact set, but it had a cord and plugged into the wall so you didn't burn through batteries.

Anyway, that was the height of consumer technology at the time. Just a few years before you needed a box the size of a roast beef to do what that thing did. If you wanted to burn a battery, you could put one in and carry it around in your shirt pocket.

I never did that though, but I spent many a night using the earplug (music in ONE EAR ONLY! Sheesh!) to listen to the local DJ on KIHR radio.

And then, it was obsolete.

I don't know where it's going to end up after all, but change IS the nature of the beast.