Larry, I think we get a short term rally. I just don't think we are at a long term bottom that will typically result in higher prices 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and a year from now.
Where is the level of pessimism now? The Investors Intelligence Poll has been bullish for two years in a row now. Market bottoms form when we have more bears than bulls in this poll:
The volatility indices are still closer to all time lows. These are readings that correlate with nothing remotely resembling a market bottom. But the numbers do correlate to past market tops.