Politics Vs Market Timing or is it all the same...
• Overbought Vs Oversold • Options expiration is next week. • Iraq election day is Jan. 30
• Overbought Vs Oversold The 1st thing that comes to mind is where are we Overbought Vs Oversold 10day suggests overbought has been worked off but the 30day says we could see much more downside before reaching an extreme oversold reading. NAAD ~ NDX NAMO ~ NDX NASI
• Options expiration is next week. I have been throwing away money on hedge puts this whole Aug rally not unwinding one, only rolling them out to the next month and I have been saying they will probably expire worthless. Because I have reached a point of maximum tolerance of loss on the hedge I'm not willing to spend more money to roll them out again and that makes me think I'm about to get screwed because I swear the MM's look at me and do the opposite. -ng- Although I don't give MAX-Pain much credence, It's hard to ignore http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl Data from cboe as of Sat Jan 15 11:10:58 2005 ET, delayed quotes. qqqq - 05 Jan Expires: Jan 22 , 2005 37 997076712.5 -Maximum-Pain Theory Value Put/Call Values 34.625 - 560596412.5 ~ 542519987.5
• Last but not least Iraq election day is Jan. 30
Questions I ask myself: So when will the market take the next plunge or will it? Will it just trade narrow and tight next week with head fakes along the way or will we see a slight reprieve from the slide until after options expiration?
If I had to guess and I do: I would say slight reprieve to flat before options expiration with a maximum top line being the possible down channel taking shape illustrated in the 2nd chart of The Good Bad & The Ugly QQQQ charts post.
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