Replies to post #322928 on $Stock*Shop*Charts*News*Option$

[Tuff-Stuff]

EIA: From Forecast of Oil Supply Abundance to Decade of Stagnation


Posted by Gail the Actuary on June 8, 2010 - 10:25am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: eia, oil forecasts [list all tags]

This is a guest post from Steven Kopits. Steven heads the New York office of Douglas-Westwood, energy business consultants.

The EIA, the statistics arm of the US Department of Energy, recently released its International Energy Outlook (IEO) for 2010. This is an important document for forecasters, as it represents the EIA's integrated view of the global energy markets in the years to come and contains a long term forecast on the range of energy sources and CO2. Like it or hate it, the IEO is a touchstone for the energy industry and is treated as the authoritative government forecast in the press and in capital raising documents like prospectuses. It influences policy-makers, the media, public opinion and investors. What it says matters.

And what does it say?

That peak oil is all but on us. And that's new.

As recently as 2007, the EIA saw a rosy future of oil supplies increasing with demand. It predicted oil consumption would rise by 15 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 2020, an ample amount to cover most eventualities. By 2030, the oil supply would reach nearly 118 mbpd, or 23 mbpd more than in 2006. But over time, this optimism has faded, with each succeeding year's forecast lower http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6556the year before. For 2030, the oil supply forecast has declined by 14 mbpd in only the last three years. This drop is as much as the combined output of Saudi Arabia and China.

kopits_eia_forecasts_jun_10.gif

cont

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6556

[DewDiligence]

I may need to retract the sarcastic remarks in #msg-51004590 about the shareholder lawsuit against APC. Perhaps APC’s executives sold shares in March because they did know something was not right with the Deepwater Horizon. It still seems far-fetched that they enough to sell a month before the accident, but it seems less crazy than it did a few days ago.