Why Australia has dumped a popular prime minister Harry Bhaskara, The Jakarta Post, Brisbane | Sat, 06/26/2010
As they say, anything is possible in politics, and Australia is no exception. In a dramatic 24-hour drama this week, its ruling Labour Party dumped Kevin Rudd, one of the country's most popular prime ministers.
His supporters had apparently lost hope that he could win the impending second national elections a few months away. They also believed that unless Rudd stepped aside, the government would be torn apart.
After a landslide victory in an election less than three years ago, Rudd was replaced Thursday by his deputy Julia Gillard, who is seen by analysts as a tougher opponent for opposition leader Tony Abbot. Rudd did not stand a reappointment in the vote of 115 lawmakers, a signal that he was aware that his support had been waning.
Gillard, who was installed the right after the vote, is Australia's first female prime minister.
Gender wise, Indonesia is ahead of Australia as it had its first female president in 2001 when Megawati Soekarnoputri replaced Abdurrahman Wahid. It was 56 years after independence in a country with the largest Muslim population in the world. Indonesian Muslims have not always been female-leader friendly, as initial objections to Megawati's leadership had attested.
Rudd's popularity began to slide in April but had since stabilized. This week's media surveys showed Labor ahead by 52 percent against the Coalition's 48 percent. His downfall was more dramatic given that his predecessor John Howard had lower ratings a number of times during election cycles and yet was never dumped in his 11 years of reign.
Many had expected that Rudd was to call for an election before the parliament after the winter break, about two months from now.
Rudd's downfall stemmed from a number of factors. One was his dwindling popularity within the Labor Party. His often high-handed leadership, and secretive and centralized decision-making was another. This earned him the ire of some party stalwarts.
Others were his perceived poor handling of various issues including his soft line against the asylum seekers, his super tax proposal on the mining industry and his back down in April in making the worst polluters pay for their carbon gas emissions.
Labour MPs recently presented a litany of lamentation on the government's response to various issues including poor school education and health services, and the high cost of living. A poll earlier this month showed that Labor was trailing behind the Opposition for the first time.
But the trigger to his downfall was allegedly his instruction to his chief of staff this week to gauge his popularity within the party.
The revolt within the party was led by right wing heavy weights Victorian Senator David Feeney, Victorian MP Bill Shorten and South Australian senator Don Farrell.
Top leaders beware of second fielders. Indonesia has had its share when vice president Jusuf Kalla challenged incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono during last year's national election.
There had been widespread disenchantment about the way Yudhoyono had addressed numerous issues, notably, his stalled antigraft efforts and his often indecisive leadership style. Kalla, who was seen as a man of action, had not been as fortunate as Gillard as he had failed to gain the full support of Golkar, the second largest party he was heading.
The Australian constitution allows Gillard to call an election either in October or in April but she ruled out calling an election next year.
The power shift in the leadership does smack of business influence. Although Gillard did not rule out a hefty tax to the mining industry, she had proposed a "negotiation" with the mining industry in her speech Thursday. It was one step ahead of Rudd's previous offer of "consultation".
Mining industry captains have been irked for weeks by Rudd's proposal to impose a 30-percent tax on top of the usual tax. The policy, dubbed "super tax", had sparked a multi-billion advertising war between the government and the mining industry.
The war at times reached comic proportions. One television ad funded by the industry depicted Australia's former world champion cyclist. In the last few seconds of it, the cyclist announced that she could no longer push her bike as well as she used to be because of the tax.
The mining industry promptly stopped its ad campaign after Gillard halted the government's ad campaign and opened her arms to the industry captains for a negotiation.
A valid question is how could a seemingly solid partnership between Rudd and Gillard fall apart? Is Labor comprised of a bunch of backstabbers? One answer was that Rudd did not trust Gillard's public assurances of her support as widely reported by the press. Another was Rudd's gauge of popularity, which had allegedly angered Gillard.
People in the street are less than entertained about the change in the leadership. Many believe the government is nothing less than the extension of business captains, not one that works for the good of the people.
As more political drama unfolds in the days to come, it will be clear whether the ruling party has made the right move or whether it has merely wasted a good, highly intelligent and popular prime minister.
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