Replies to post #27843 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Jerry Olson]

Zeev

right now everything i see is real trouble...we broke all index supports, and on this next rally up to overhead resistance at the 20/40 ema's daily candle chart..i would think we roll over and test the July 24th lows with a vengence..

there's a symetrical "LOOK" to all the P&F charts and the candle charts too that look like a magnet to that low...

and last week our main coach the NYSEBP reversed down...

nothing looks safe here..not for the next 1-2 months...

[XenaLives]

Strange thought - what if a lot of Saudi money is short? If the market improves would not that necessitate a large influx of Saudi money?

Stranger things have happened.....

[mlsoft]

Zeev...

At least on the intermediate term future of the $USD we agree, having changed my opinion of a sharp dollar drop a while ago, as noted in #msg-498736. I believe the $USD will drop from current levels as foreign capital is repatriated for domestic needs and the unsustainable current accounts deficit begins to take hold, but Japan and Europe (especially Germany at the moment) look to be headed economic woes that at least are as bad as our own.

I have been saying for months that Japan had little or no chance at a recovery, and I believe that is becoming evident now, with severe economic problems in their future. The current decline in the German economy has been even more rapid than I was expecting, and it will most likely spread quickly to most of Europe, forcing the ECU to rethink the 3% rule, among other changes that will become necessary. Even more than our Fed, they are still fighting the old war against inflation, rather than the real threat of deflation.

I do not completely share your view on the effect of the dollar on gold though. While it is obvious that gold would benefit greatly from a rapidly falling dollar, there are a number of other forces at work that I believe will work the price of gold higher. The threat of economic dislocations throughout the world (especially in Japan and South America), the similar threat of domestic problems with our money center banks with their massive loan losses and derivative problems, and the continuing threat of war and terrorism all are conducive for the price of gold, in my opinion.

And that is all it is ---- my opinion.

mlsoft

[Ace Hanlon]

At least you and Saville agree that the markets should rally nicely soon. We will see how things develop after that.

BTW lots of folks see the buck dropping 10% against the Euro over the next 12 months.