David,
You Say-
"First of all, we can place an upper limit on the revenue of trees sold. TATF has said they have planted 2,000,000 trees (but they never said how many they sold; many were planted never to be harvested or in their own account). Anyway, the upper end of your estimated revenue was 3000 tree owners times 1000 trees each comes to 3,000,000 trees sold, which is at least 50% too high and could easily be two or more times the number of trees sold."
My response-
1) TATF told me (many years ago) that they sell about 50% of the trees and hold in their own account about 50% of the trees. This was one of the first questions that I asked during my buying process. (yes, my info is dated but I have no alternate info)
2) TATF has, over the years, mentioned "Special Buying opportunities" due to one reason or another. One of the reasons (based on my memory) has been that they have come across (or presumably purchased) already planted teak plantations. I have no idea on the size or number of trees, but do remember the events because the sales events were always for older trees that they purchased. Presumably, TATF did not plant these trees, and the 2 million number refers to trees that they planted only. Yes, you have to read everything TATF says carefully.
Quote from 2007 TON
"
* We have now planted more than 2 million tropical hardwood trees of 51 different beautiful species
* The trees we have planted to date will produce an estimated 150 to 200 million board feet of tropical hardwood lumber over the next 25 years – all tropical hardwoods that will not have been taken from the natural rainforest
* Our plantations now consist of 15 farms and nearly 14,000 acres
* We are growing beautiful tropical hardwood trees for more than 3,000 companies, trusts, individuals and foundations"
3) The 2 million number was released sometime ago (2007 TON). TATF still has continued to list trees for sale and they still list 2010 pre-planting prices on the web site today. One has to assume that they are somehow still planting (and selling), if you believe anything on the website.
4) At 14,000 acres, if just 25% of the land is dedicated to tree owner trees, 3500 acres = 1417 hectares, at 1100 trees/hectare = 1.558 million trees. Using $22/tree from my earlier post of missing funds, then this is $34 million, if 50% of the land is dedicated to plantation land, then the number doubles to $68 million. (I do think that 50% is probably too high)
So, to summarize, based on the analysis approach from this post and my other recent post, somewhere in the neighborhood of $34-$50 million of tree owners funds has been vectored off to the various pots of gold that TATF (and indirectly, the tree owners) have been chasing.
planb
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