2ndGen on May 30, 2010 - 1:08am>I think I understand why topkill won't work, and I am pretty sure the lmrp won't work.
1) The blowout is around the casing hanger. Suttles intimated this, so it is a fact that BP knows. Liner is cemented below 17186' (if at all) which leaves ~12000 ft of unsupported casing (9-5/8 and 7" tapered). BHP is ~13000psi I think, so if we assume an open hole, this is the pressure at the wellhead. Less hydrostatic of 5000' SW gives you more than 10,000 psi effective at the wellhead. I'm working on the math, but I think the casing hanger has lifted off it's seat under pressure from below. (12,000 ft of pipe should stretch several inches.) When you pressure up the topside, the casing hanger re-seats and closes off the annulus between the 9-5/8 and 16" just like an inline check valve. They can pump forever and nothing will go down. Comments invited please.
~~>>2) RE: LMRP Cap: Last year I used the diamond cutter/ROV that BP intends to use. We cut a damaged leg chord off a jackup rig. Events were so that we actually used the ROV at the water's surface. The cutter belt cut about 3/4 of the chord which was roughly the same diameter and thickness as the riser. Then the leg chord twisted and the cutter belt jammed in the cut and broke. Pull the ROV, change the belt, and latched back on. Since the cut geometry had changed, the belt jammed again, much like what happens when a hand saw gets pinched in a 2x4. In the end I taped a cutting torch to the end of a 20' piece of angle iron, taped the oxy handle open and with the help of two filipino welders at 4 in the morning finished the cut. We were working at surface, and we were lucky.(BP has neither one of these things going for them) If the ROV/cutter belt is BP's only plan for cutting the riser it is a desperate attempt. Considering the DP in the middle of the riser only compounds the complication.
Regarding the previous comment on drill pipe, the pipe is not hardened tool steel. it is high strength steel, but hardness is carefully controlled to reduce hydrogen embrittlement and improve fatigue life. Would have to check but I think NACE limits hardness to under 200 Brinell, just like the BOP's. It is not inclined to crack, but will certainly tear. One of the problems with shear rams is that they also need to be soft enough to not become hydrogen embrittled, but hard enough to cut high strength DP, so it is a fine balancing act.
Regards to all the pros here. I am wondering why no journalists are bothering to educate themselves enough to ask BP the pertinent questions.. like "what is the BOP internal pressure while the well is flowing?" I would encourage any journalist to enroll in a 3 day well control course complete with simulator to get a very good grasp of well control fundamentals. They are offered any day of the week, in many places between Houston and New Orleans. Since we don't have access to BP, and BP is not forthcoming, we have to rely on journalists, and if they aren't knowledgeable they can't be effective.
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