Replies to post #27807 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[marvin1946]

Zeev and thread,
Anyone read the Stephen Roach(chief economist, morgan stanley) op ed piece in todays NY Times regarding deflation. According to roach we are on the cusp and will probably be there with the bursting of the housing bubble which in turn will burst the consumer bubble. He does not even suggest a way out.
His is a contrary view but my belief is that govt needs to incent business spending while lowering rates further and adding liquidity to the system. 5% mortgages will keep the housing market healthy and renewed capex spending will bring the economy out of near-deflation. Perhaps tax credits for the next 6 months for companys that spend on capex?? Marv

[Sir Realist]

Would you consider LQMT to be in a growth industry? I do, and think it owns most of the corner. Any nearterm weakness is likely due to larger market forces, but at some point, perhaps much lower than this, I expect to see it rise into a powerhouse, if it's managed well.

[mlsoft]

Zeev...

I have played ELON from time to time and have long considered it a good "story stock." I have noticed that it tends to follow the oil and gas exploration sector in price, probably because its target market is to save energy costs, and thus it trades on perceived gluts and shortages of oil, just like the exploration stocks. My concern now is that their "window of opportunity" may be closing as no lasting periods of shortage have occurred and as their technology ages, the odds of someone else leapfrogging them increases.

Along the same lines, one of the dangers facing many chip and some equipment stocks is that should we enter a prolonged period of slow economic growth (or worse), many of them would face the same situation where today's leading edge technology could be outdated by the time a strong cyclical recovery begins. That would lead to large inventory and R&D writeoffs for the old technology and emerging new leadership, changing the landscape for investors - and is one of the reasons I believe now is not the time to be entering into longer term positions in these sectors.

mlsoft