I have read various brief bits on the dynamics of retracement, but i know there be studies available.
One key element though is the number of people that are stuck holding creates a massive overhang, so when a bear market rallies gets going there are points where there will be huge selling from those just so thankful they are either getting out even, or with a less severe loss,and that combines with the swing traders that are riding up into the resistance also bailing and taking their profits, and voila, down the market goes, and yet lower than before.
Another factor, each major bear market rally creates a lower major resistance zone(that is a newer level with major overhang). So bottoms keep getting lower and tops lower until the retracement finally completes itself.
Yet another factor is economics, in this case, a slow,slow recovery with the threat a double dip recession etc ahead, that is, the uncertainty level is high, and as we know the stock market hates uncertainty.
Art Cashin keeps saying this bear market can not complete itself until those still holding from high levels in tech stocks finally realize the price they bought at will never ever be approached again.
This perhaps the cruelest aspect of those having bought into a massive bubble, and a percentage of some note just hold until bankruptcy as their losses are so great.
These are just a few off the cuff thoughts on post bubble retracement.
I got more:) Max p.s.An aspect to get a feel for retracement is that from roughly 2850(can't check at moment) to when we hit plus 5000, there was ZERO resistance and that fact contributed heavily to the wild euphoric bubblemania blow-off, and due to the huge volume in those last Bubble days we know that many got caught with a huge cost basis while those selling into this huge demand were checking out in a extremely profitable status(their money gained has contributed to the consumer strength post bubble i believe, but that effect should be exhausted by now).
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