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Zeev Hed

09/21/02 1:51 PM

#27708 RE: JLSegal #27702

I had the SOX low "pegged" at around 237 and expected it's sharper decline than the Naz (see #msg-496170), thus my deep OB's on the sox like stocks (some already reached, like ZRAN, MXIM and BRKS). For AMAT, it breached and printed a new low, and new lows beget new lows, my OB is just under $11, and if George and Sir Realist scenario (another big fake hit before a turn) materializes, it may be hit. If it holds here, within the next three months, I can easily see a 50% gain to the $17/$18 area. Mind you, AMAT has not reached the level of a value stock, so if you really like it, you may want to get in in 1/3 segments here at the OB ($10.88) and just under $10 while waiting for the SOX to build a head of steam.

Zeev