Brightness, if you are short CCMP, I think that you will be disappointed, I have a very low probability of it reaching my own OB just under $37. Note, the week of September 17, 2001, a major market bottom that led to a 50% advance in the Naz had the following equity P/C ratio: 1.08, 1.03, .72, 1.21 and 1.14 (from Monday to Friday), the last week (starting 9/20) we had the following agglomeration of above 1.00 P/C ratios: 1.03, 1.04, 1.21, 1.14 and .99. Because it is a retest (and I believe a successful one) other extreme sentiment indicators are not getting as far out as last July indicators (for instance, the number of Naz new lows is half what we encountered in late July, though, the Naz Friday hit within 24 points of the late July intraday low. The turnips do not base their "forecast" on just one indicator mind you, but I bring this series just to demonstrate how lopsided the bearish sentiment is. Mind you, the late July lows were accompanied by only a single EOD reading above 1.00 in that series (7/19 at 1.09) and going into the intraday low on 7/23 (from which we bounced in the same day almost 100 Naz points to the day's high) was already preceded by neutral reading of around .63, while the market was "seeking its low". We could have a similar pattern here, though I doubt it.
I remain unabashadly adorned with a pair of shiny bull horns.
Zeev
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