Replies to post #99259 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

A Simple Analysis by Jonathan Marcus BBC

The problem is that South Korean economic measures, US condemnation and even possible action at the
UN are unlikely to change the mindset in Pyongyang.

China is the only country with any real leverage over North Korea.

Behind the scenes Beijing is going to be the crucial player if tensions are not to spill out of control.

The weeks ahead are punctuated with opportunities for further tensions - not least a joint US-South
Korean anti-submarine exercise.

ATTACKS BLAMED ON NORTH

* Jan 1967 - South Korean warship attacked near border, 39 sailors killed

* Jan 1968 - presidential palace in Seoul stormed, 71 killed

* Oct 1983 - Rangoon hotel used by South Korean president bombed, 21 killed

* Nov 1987 - South Korean airliner bombed, 115 killed

* Mar 2010 - Cheonan warship attacked, 46 sailors killed

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10150379.stm

[fuagf]

China, US to wrap up key talks on economy, N.Korea
Mon May 24 .. ET AFP

China, US to wrap up key talks on economy, N.Korea AFP/Pool – US Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton speaks about the situation on the Korean peninsula during a press …

* Video:North Korea denounces South Reuters
http://news.yahoo.com/video/world-15749633/19992830

* Video:Lee: NKorea must pay for torpedo attack on ship AP
http://news.yahoo.com/video/world-15749633/19989934

* Video:Clinton: China, U.S. Must work together AP
http://news.yahoo.com/video/world-15749633/19986562

Mon May 24, 5:16 pm ET

BEIJING (AFP) – The United States and China were to wrap up key talks Tuesday aimed at smoothing out
differences on currency and trade issues, as Washington hopes to persuade Beijing to get tough on North Korea.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other key ministers were
to meet senior Chinese officials for the second and final day of the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

Inter-Korean tensions as well as sensitive issues that have recently dogged Sino-US ties such as trade spats,
the yuan and Internet freedom were on the agenda of the high-level talks, attended by a 200-strong US delegation.

Relations between Washington and Beijing have been strained over economic issues such as the value of the Chinese
currency, but also over US arms sales to Taiwan and US President Barack Obama's February meeting with the Dalai Lama.

Clinton is expected to press Beijing to back a UN move to slap further sanctions on North Korea, after a
panel of experts concluded that the reclusive regime was behind the March sinking of a South Korean warship.

The US military said Monday it wuld carry out anti-submarine and other naval exercises with South Korea in the "near future".

Meanwhile South Korea has cut off trade with the North and pledged to take the matter before the UN Security Council, where
China -- Pyongyang's sole major ally -- is one of five veto-wielding members. Beijing on Monday again urged restraint.

Clinton demanded that North Korea "stop its provocative behaviour" and
called on China to cooperate with the United States to deal with the situation.

"We must work together to address this challenge and advance our
shared objective of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula," she said.

The standoff over Iran's nuclear programme, climate change and energy cooperation are also on the agenda
of the talks, which are to conclude with a joint press conference, followed by a separate US press briefing.

Clinton, who started a week-long Asia tour on Friday in Japan, will fly to South Korea on Wednesday on a
visit expected to focus on the sinking of the naval corvette Cheonan, which left 46 South Korean sailors dead.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100524/pl_afp/chinausdiplomacy

Thank you for linking your North Korea to mine on Iran .. good idea ..

[fuagf]

China's Korean balancing act
Sunday, May 30, 2010


Relations between North and South Korea
are tense but China maintains ties with
both [REUTERS]

The fallout from the sinking of the Cheonan is causing a diplomatic dilemma for China, which has important strategic links with both countries on the Korean Peninsula.

In recent years China has carefully cultivated relationships with both North and South Korea, glossing over the apparent contradiction in maintaining close ties with two sworn enemies.

In doing so, China has become one of South Korea's biggest trade partners, while continuing to support Seoul's authoritarian neighbour.

But with the South demanding action against North Korea for its apparent role in sinking the Cheonan, those relationships, painstakingly built through years of regional summits and bilateral diplomacy, have taken a blow.

Important ties

China's relationship with North Korea dates back to the Korean War, when communist Chinese fighters joined their North Korean comrades against the South and its Western allies in 1950.

The conflict, the first of the Cold War, quickly escalated, with the communist North drawing support from China and the South backed by an American-led United Nations force.

The war left the Korean peninsula divided, and set up a political dynamic that has endured to the present day.

China is one of the isolationist North's few international allies, and its biggest trading partner, providing crucial shipments of food, arms and fuel that have helped the authoritiarian regime in Pyongyang avoid collapse under the pressure of international sanctions.

In return, North Korea has provided Beijing a useful buffer between its borders and the thousands of US troops who have been stationed in South Korea for the past half-century.

Beijing recognises that its support for the volatile regime in North Korea is not problem-free and has at times attempted to use its influence over Pyongyang constructively, for example bringing the country to the table for six-party nuclear talks.

There have also been signs that China's patience with its unpredictable ally is not inexhaustable. When North Korea carried out a nuclear weapons test in May last year, Beijing agreed to harsher sanctions against Pyongyang, showing there are limits to its support.

But one thing China does not want is a significantly weakened North Korea. Any collapse of the regime would likely cause a crisis that would spill over the border into China, and destabilise the region.

Oddly, South Korea reaps similar benefits from the uncomfortable status quo it endures with regard to its neighbour. Seoul has no desire to suddenly absorb North Korea's 23 million inhabitants, whose poverty and lack of education would place a major strain on the economy.

It also has no illusions over what a sudden conflict could do to the international investment that has driven its economic growth.

China will hope that this will be enough to defuse tensions in the region, allowing it
to continue policies towards the two Koreas that place pragmatism firmly over principle.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/05/20105309617365594.html

clip .. China premier: Korean tensions must be defused
By YOUNG-JOON AHN (AP) – 1 hour ago [...]

At a closing news conference, Wen gave no clear indication that Beijing was ready to endorse South
Korea's plans to bring North Korea before the U.N. Security Council for sanctions or condemnation.
China's backing would be key because it wields veto power at the Security Council as a permanent member.

Nevertheless, Wen used China's strongest language yet to describe the grave
situation between communist ally North Korea and South Korea, a vital trading partner. .. more ..
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQydsIWmNQZpwRriADac51u5rx8gD9G13TP81

[fuagf]

South Korean rocket launch delayed
06:24 GMT, Wednesday, 9 June 2010


KSLV-1 rocket The rocket is in
place on the southern tip of
the Korean peninsula

South Korea has delayed the launch of a rocket to put a satellite into space because of fire safety problems, officials say.

Controllers had planned to launch the Korea Space Launch Vehicle 1 (KSLV-1)
between 1630 and 1840 (0730-0940GMT) from the Naro Space Centre in Goheung.

But the operation was postponed shortly before the scheduled blast-off.

This is South Korea's second attempt to put a satellite in space, after a launch in August 2009 failed. .. add ..
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Rocket_Marks_Milestone_In_South_Korean_Space_History_999.html

It will up the ante in what some observers have described as an "Asian space race".

China, India and Japan have developed a launch capability; China has also sent three manned missions into space.

Checks needed

The delay was due to problems with the rocket's fire extinguisher system, Yonhap news agency reported, citing officials.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology
said engineers needed to check the problem "in detail", the agency said.

It is not clear when the launch will take place, but the spokesman said the countdown was unlikely to resume on Wednesday.

When it does go ahead, the part-Russian, part South Korean rocket will launch a
91kg (200lb) test satellite called the Science and Technology Satellite 2B (STSAT 2B).

The rocket stands 33m (108ft) tall and will be launched from the
country's new spaceport on the southern tip of the Korean peninsula.

South Korea's first launch of the two-stage KSLV-1, in August last
year, failed to place its satellite payload into the proper orbit.

Four months previously, an attempted space launch by North Korea was deemed to have
failed when the US reported that both rocket stages had fallen into the Pacific Ocean.

The North's launch was seen as a cover for a long-range missile test, but all of South
Korea's immediate neighbours accept that its attempt is part of a peaceful civilian programme.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10269459.stm