Good question. I didn't even think of the Manhattan Project. In any case, the Allies were very much assured of victory by Feb and March 1945 even without the nukes. Both Germany and Japan were running out of fuel and running out of targets for Allied bomber squadrons. Yes, "running out targets" as in there were no sizable war making industrial plants left to bomb In occupied Europe or Japan. Either the Soviets or the Western Allies could roll over all of Germany even if the other allied partner stopped fighting. There was no chance of Germany ever developing their nuclear bomb by the time 1945 rolled around.
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