Replies to post #22 on Universal Travel Group (fka UTRA)

[viking86]

My predictions are all based on real-life (non GAAP) performance. The 1.50 eps I project for 2010 is directly related to the 1.27 non GAAP of 2009, not the 0.70 gaap. I just assumed that rev in 2Q and 3Q would increase by the same yoy amount of 50% as in 1Q and added another 20% growth in 4Q to account for the rev contribution of the 4 new acquisitions. Net margin is assumed equal to 2009 NM= 0.18, same OS as in 1Q although it may increase slightly due to the acquisitions (may be 600K shares total but will be weighted down anyway).

So in a way GAAP adj has already been baked in the 1.50 unless we have much more price appreciation this year (which I doubt).

[hudsonate]

Pickin,

My numbers have GAAP hitting real EPS on $.16 in 2010 vs. $.58 or so in 2009. (stock price lower and most warrants excercised)

My latest estimates:

Based on company guidance and the maximum 3,285,715 share offering dilution this week, UTA will still earn $1.37 in 2010.

If for some reason they do not close the four most recent acquisition targets or do not generate the $3 million in net income associated with them, UTA still earns $1.22 in 2010.

Calculations for $1.37 EPS (2010):

$27,985,000 (net income) + $3,000,000 (net income added with 4 acquisitions) = $30,985,000 (total net income), or $1.53 EPS (based on 20,215,933 shares outstanding) minus $.16 for non-cash (GAAP) charges = $1.37 (2010 full year EPS)

Based on $1.37 EPS for 2010, UTA is selling at forward PE of 4.9.