Replies to post #95850 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: MRK/Boceprevir

Given the interest in HCV in these parts, I’m surprised no one has commented on the comments in #msg-50187183. Is MRK pulling a fast one on the investment community by touting a Boceprevir NDA submission in 2010 while internally planning for an FDA decision to be delayed until 2012 or 2013? (This is a serious question, not a rhetorical one.)

Maybe it's a bit naive on my part, but I don't give a lot of thought to the first gen HCV PIs like telaprevir and boceprevir as it seems to me like those drugs will be relatively quickly supplanted by the 2nd gen and 3rd gen HCV PIs. Sure, the first gen HCV PIs should bring in some serious money being first to market and having the HCV market to themselves the first couple of years, but I would be quite nervous right now if I were long VRTX at an ~$8B market cap tied primarily to one drug that is already looking a bit dated even before it hits the market.

[turtlepower]

Its possible that MRK see's fewer events of anemia in the ongoing PIII Boceprevir trials and views the trial due to complete in 2011 in a different light than it did last year after unveiling the PII results which showed anemia in 50% of the patients. Or they are taking a calculated risk in order to not give away too much market share. Then again they may decide to wait till 2011 if anemia is common in the ongoing trials because the FDA asked them to. So to summarize I think they are serious about filing in 2010 provided anemia is not a serious issue in the ongoing PIII trials.