Tech Talk for Thursday January 6th 2005 (excerpt - see link for charts)
Unlike most sectors, fertilizer stocks have double seasonality. Most sectors have a time during the year when they move higher. Performance during the rest of the year is random, sometimes higher and sometimes lower. In contrast, fertilizer stocks have a period of seasonal strength from the end of June to the end of December and they have a period of weakness from the end of December to the end of June. Seasonal influences have been exceptional recently. Both Potash Corp and Agrium have come under severe pressure during the past week when traders using seasonality in their decision making took profits. News that ammonia prices have fallen 20% during the past two weeks also had an influence (Both companies are producers of ammonia, an important component of nitrogen based fertilizers). Agrium has been hit the hardest. Potash Corp. also has been under significant pressure. Both stocks have declined on higher than average volume.
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