dupedbysteve and belmontx, you haven't been following along very well. Whether you simply haven't understood what has been written here recently, or you've chosen to misrepresent it, misstating facts harms your credibility.
belmontx wrote:
"Whatever happens here we have learned that the TATF ten year-old teak trees owned by justcfrall ($100 per 100) have no market, except for David Knight, when priced at one-tenth what the company is currently trying to sell them for ($10320 per 100) -- see "special opportunities" on the TATF website."
justcfrall offered his 10-year old teak trees for $10 each, which is $1000 per 100 trees, not $100 per 100 trees. Four people in this forum, not just me, expressed interest in buying some or all of them.
The comparison you made with TATF's current price is way off. First, you ignored the quantity pricing discount (you cited the cost per 100 provided fewer than 500 trees are purchased, though I now have over 2000 so the proper comparison would have been $8687 per 100 trees). Second, you ignored the current 30% off incentive pricing, bringing the TATF price of 10 year old teak to $6080.90 per 100 for me. Third, you ignored that the 10 year old teak TATF is selling is post 10 year thinned, meaning that they have already been thinned at seven years and at 10 years, but justcfrall's 10 year old teak have never been thinned. In other words, many of the trees I am buying from justcfrall should have already been thinned and when they are, they will likely have little value and may now even be harming the growth and value of the trees that will remain. I have no idea how many of justcfrall's trees should have been thinned, but according to the TATF projections, about half should have been thinned after the 10th year. As we all know, the earliest thinned trees have little value, so by not having to buy any of those pre-thinned trees from TATF makes their value compared to buying justcfrall's pre-thinned trees about twice as high per tree. In other words, taking the $6080.90 TATF price divided by two brings the TATF pricing to an approximate comparative price of $3040.45 per 100 pre-thinned 10 year teak trees. That's about three times what justcfall is selling his trees to me for.
Now, as for the market for these trees, you should have understood that any investment in growing trees is very illiquid. This forum seethes negativity about TATF, so if you know anything about psychology or advertising, you should also understand that in such an environment it's going to be harder to sell something. Furthermore, we're in the middle of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Approximately 10% unemployment, millions having their houses foreclosed, people have lost significant percentages of the value of their stocks, so in the middle of that, how many people do you think are in a position to buy and want to buy a bunch of trees? The truth is, the market isn't very good for just about anything right now.
belmontx also wrote:
"... the company is currently trying to sell them for ($10320 per 100) -- see "special opportunities" on the TATF website. And even this is only one-third what buyers paid a decade ago."
TATF has never sold trees at $31000 per 100. TATF has applied an inflation multiplier to the pricing of their trees over the years. In other words, TATF charged less 10 years ago than they do now (not taking into account current incentive discounts).
dupedbysteve wrote:
"Suddenly this"david knight' showed up saying he had gotten a thinning report and asking us to "be patient"."
That's not all that I wrote, and it's completely out of context. I wrote that if you believe your investment in TATF is completely lost, then you should sell to anyone that will buy, because getting something now is better than never getting anything. But, if you do not believe that your investment in TATF is lost, that you should be patient. (Trees take a long time to grow.) Furthermore, I gave this advice to forum member pointer. If you read his posts, you will find he believes TATF is a complete sham and that everyone that visits the farms is shown the same few trees.
The point I was trying to make is: be rational. Put your money where your mouth is; don't just hide anonymously behind a pseudonym and write trash. If you believe your investment is worthless, then sell it now for anything you can get because that's better than holding onto it and getting nothing. But if you believe your investment is not worthless, then accept the fact that trees take a long time to grow, and the profit mainly comes at the tail end of the investment period.
belmontx also wrote:
"I agree with your suspicions, dupedbysteve. Something about the David Knight entries doesn't pass the smell test."
Whatever you guys think I "smell" like, it really doesn't matter. I don't expect anyone to do anything I suggest just because I wrote it. Carefully consider what I write and decide whether it makes sense. If it does not, then ignore it.
I really don't know what I've written that "smells." It's pretty simple. I've written it about three times now. I own trees at TATF. I am concerned that some of the activities discussed in this forum may harm TATF and therefore harm my financial interests in my trees there. I don't want anybody harming my financial interests in my trees.
It smells to me that some people here keep wanting to harm TATF and therefore me, and they are doing this anonymously while hiding behind psuedonyms. It also smells that any TATF tree owners here that believe their investment is worthless haven't tried to sell their trees to someone else (besides justcfrall -- he talks the talk and walks the walk). That is irrational.
By the way, dupedbysteve, you never did answer the questions I asked you (back on April 28). What exactly do you hope to accomplish by going to the Texas Attorney General? Have you thought it through? How do you know that whatever happens that it won't harm your investment in TATF (assuming you even own trees at TATF, and no one here knows whether you actually do)? You're not smelling so good to me, right now.
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