Replies to post #95141 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: The HCV Waiting Game (article in Chemical & Engineering News)

Thanks for posting—that’s a decent overview of the HCV arena, although it does not offer any bona fide new insights for most readers of this board. For investors, the most consequential portion of the article is this:

In 2008, the global HCV drug market was roughly $2.0 billion, according to Decision Resources. The consultancy forecasts that by 2013, just two years after the anticipated launch of the two new drugs, sales will reach $7.4 billion.

C&EN might be using an obsolete forecast; in a recent report, Decision Resources predicted 2013 HCV sales of $7.7B from just the US, Japan, and the big-5 countries of Western Europe (#msg-38956178).

There’s also something in the C&EN article for bears: the claim that Decision Resources expects HCV sales to quickly peak and decline to only $3.3B in 2018 as the initial bolus of untreated patients gets treated and cured.

In any case, I’m adding your post to the Reference section of the IDIX ReadMeFirst. Regards, Dew