Replies to post #95122 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Ocyan -

I have never explicitly called for a particular HR value. I know enough about statistics to not try to predict a particular value for something that should be thought of as a range while running simulations

Comments:

a) Prior to the interim you did make either (or both) explicit guesstimates or implicit guesstimates and they were around 1.45 (near the 9901/2a combination). (the implicit guesstimates would have been via powering guesses). I agree that Dew did adjust from 1.20 at some point to 1.25 - but I don't remember when relative to the interim.

b) Doesn't it feel just a little bit odd to claim that PSB is wrong when you seem so shy about having ever gone on the record at all? Isn't the point of the scientific method to make predicts (with whatever error boundaries you like) and see where you went wrong when the experiment is complete? Dew did that. You deny you did. ?