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m1o2n3i4c5k6

09/12/02 5:18 PM

#24955 RE: ajs #24937

Not a scientific response but I have many friends in the retail business, all good merchants. They to a man say business is awful. They are unable to make their comp. store numbers.

All this may change but the trend is not promising.

Of course, selectively, there will be some that will beat the trend but overall, my guess is the fourth quarter will be a disappointment to most retailers.

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ajtj99

09/12/02 6:46 PM

#24983 RE: ajs #24937

ajs, retail is still slow. There should be plenty of deals to be had in the 4th quarter, as the retailers have really ordered a lot of stuff (going by the import numbers).

Truckers could be helped a bit near term by the demise of Consolidated, but it won't help that much. They were in a death-spiral and many had already shifted to other carriers.

Fuel, Labor, equipment, and taxes are what you have to look at for truckers. New emissions requirements for engines have driven up the cost of 2003 rigs by as much as $9,000.00 Labor costs are not going down, as it is still tough to get people to stay in that job. Furthermore, fuel prices have remained high.

With slack business in the slowing economy, the high fixed costs have forced the truckers to slash pricing and sacrifice variable costs in order to maintain a steady revenue stream.
This is why stocks are suffering.

The bottom line is a slow economy means truckers will suffer with everyone else, but more because of their high fixed costs.
War will spike oil prices too, and that's another thing driving the stocks down.