Replies to post #6205 on Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

So so year... about 15% increase.

Your post made me look at my transactions over the past year. It appears to have been mostly an accumulation year, with, percentage-wise, a couple of large gains (osip / gnvc) and a large paper loss (gnvc). 2005 is shaping up to be generally an accumulation year once again, with ctic, gtcb and telk presenting the potential large gains or losses.

[swampboots]

"How did everyone do in 2004?"

I think beating the average index is well for full time job holders, but a poor every day trader must make 300% as 1/2 for IRS and 1/4 for expenses for living.
Just spemd 50 hours tallying some of the best traders on these boards, some are swing traders where hold is for days, and I think if 1000% was not kept they are just paper trading, or reckless with unposted risky option side bets.
I will not post my gains except to say under 300% is truly dimwitted credentialed, trust me I study traders all day.

[urche]

"How did everyone do in 2004? "

I really appreciate the candor of those willing to share their successes, failures, luck, and foolishness--a good way to learn.
In that spirit here is a summary of the movers for me:
The only gains >50% were in MEDX and IIF (Indian ETF).
Also did well with JNJ which has been converted to PFE.
Also good for about 30% gains was playing the ups and downs of two Canadian energy trusts which make it easy by sporting 12-18% dividend yields.

The biggest losers have been Conceptus and GTCB, both of which I still hold and feel guardedly optimistic if not excited about prospects for 2-3 years from now.
The next biggest loser for me was Nastech and the reason was just terrible timing, losing confidence and selling just before it made a major breakthrough in partnership for PYY. That was my most crushing loss emotionally.

Have not figured gain for the year, but probably in 15-30% range.

Now, biggest biotech holdings are Spectrum, GTCB, and MEDX (which has almost overtaken GTCB).

Best wishes and thanks to all for sharing.

Urche

[randychub]

I have had 2 good years in a row. Having all my eggs in the imclone basket and selling out between $70 and $80 really payed off. Imclone has been great for me two years in a row. I will spreading my cash around this year. 3 years ago was a disater for me so it's been nice being back in the green.

I also did well with nstk. I did ok pretty good jumping in and out of large pharma's playing the side ways market. I came out slightly ahead with genr but some buys around $5 took care of most of my gains in genr.

I'am carrying large positions of genr, ymi, and gtcb into 2005. I also bought back 3/4 of my imclone at 53 and 46.

Best wishes to all the posters who make up this board, the best board on the internet.

Randy

[rkcrules2001]

<<...although the FRX and OSIP gains are still on paper.>>

I'm not sure those words would have meant nearly as much to me a couple of weeks ago. But after my recent PARS experience, they created a slight burning sensation in my gut.

The PARS debacle changed a 300%+ gain into a paltry 40% gain, counting all PARS trades over the past 18 months. Very annoying and very educational. All in all though I'm quite happy with 2004 -- decent returns and some great learning experiences.

Thank you, Dew, and the many others on this board who have generously helped in that process.

rkc

[DewDiligence]

Year-end recap:

2005 was another good year, but not as good as 2004 (my best year ever), when I cashed out a large gain on GENR.

GTCB was up only 8% for the year, but my own GTCB holding was up more than 20% because I did some aggressive buying in the spring: after the announced delay in March (#msg-5763366) and after the revelation in May that the EMEA would be conducting inspections (#msg-6231451). GTCB remains my largest current position.

I’m up about 5% on IMCL, which I acquired last summer, and I haven’t sold any. I like the buyout vig, and the stock seems cheap enough to be relatively safe even if there is no activity on the M&A front. (I like the fact that the stock price has held up in spite of the strong Panitumumab data and the ABGX buyout.)

I made 50% on TEVA, buying in Feb and selling in Nov (#msg-5470929, #msg-8503693). I would be happy to re-enter at a lower price because I like the company’s prospects during the rest of the decade.

I cashed out a medium-sized gain on OSIP early in the year and was lucky to avoid the steep downturn culminating with the EYET deal. Although I think Macugen is a dog, I’d consider buying back OSIP at a lower valuation.

I eked out small gains in COR, DNDN, FRX, and SNY, and closed out a modest loss in PFE. I don’t plan to buy back DNDN, and I consider myself fortunate to have made money there. I’ll probably avoid FRX until the Lexapro suit is decided. With COR, I’m waiting to see more clinical data before deciding whether to re-enter. SNY (as with TEVA) I sold for valuation reasons only, but the buzz vis-à-vis Acomplia will probably prevent an opportunity to buy back at a price I would consider attractive.

PFE was my worst decision of the year and the only realized loss—I just never imagined that the stock would trade this cheaply even after winning the Lipitor case. If I make a lot of money on some other stock in 2006 and need a relatively safe place to park the proceeds, I’ll consider buying PFE as a pseudo-convertible-bond.

For the first year since 1999, I had no short positions at all in 2005.

All told, a pretty good year with a few decent-sized gains and no large losses. I’ll take it.