Battlelines drawn in unpopularity contest May 15, 2010
Meet the family... Tony Abbott is congratulated by his wife Margie and daughters Louise, Bridget and Frances after his budget address- in-reply. Photo: Glen McCurtayne
Both parties are seeking to capitalise on the weaknesses of each other's leader, writes Phillip Coorey
When the shadow cabinet met on Wednesday night to put the finishing touches to Tony Abbott's budget address-in-reply, the leader wanted at least one cherry to offer voters.
Abbott, according to insiders, proposed payment options for stay-at-home mothers, a policy concept that has been in the pipeline for some months.
It would complement nicely Abbott's proposed generous paid parental leave scheme, which he announced in March and was to spruik strongly in the budget speech.
Abbott, who was upbraided by his colleagues for failing to consult them about the $2.7 billion parental leave scheme, which will be funded by a controversial 1.7 per cent rise in company tax, put his cash payments options on the table on Wednesday night.
A figure of $10,000 was mooted, roughly a doubling of the baby bonus.
One by one, shadow ministers canned the proposal as too expensive.
Moreover, it was at odds with theme of the speech which, with its catchcry of ''this reckless spending must stop'', was supposed to portray Abbott as a strict financial disciplinarian who could return the budget to surplus without new taxes. (Even though the Coalition would keep the $5.5 billion increase in tobacco excise the government announced two weeks ago).
By the time half the shadow cabinet had spoken, Abbott, who enjoys a rubbery reputation on economics, got the message. He dropped his idea with a joke about having to ''keep my DLP instincts in check'', a reference to the anti-Communist, Catholic-influenced Labor breakaway Democratic Labor Party.
Instead, he offered a speech strong on rhetoric, light on detail, but which sought deliberately to distil the election into one issue - Kevin Rudd's resource super profits tax which the government will use to fund superannuation, infrastructure, and business tax cuts.
This tax, declared Abbott, was the issue upon which the election would turn. ''The die is cast. Neither side will retreat. The only way to stop this great big new tax on the people who saved us from recession is to change the government.''
Labor will accuse Abbott of putting the super profits of his billionaire mates ahead of the savings of battlers and denying them a greater slice of the profits from the resources they own.
The Coalition will portray Labor as out to destroy the industry which did more to save the nation from recession than the government's megabillion-dollar stimulus spending spree. It will be accompanied by an ETS-style scare campaign centred on the cost of living.
The immediate fear within Labor ranks is the ability of Rudd to prosecute his case against Abbott.
There is an almost universal concern within the ALP about the Prime Minister's communications problem.
Not only does he struggle to sell policies, but his plunging popularity in the polls means he now has a credibility problem even before he opens his mouth.
''Rudd needs to keep his head down and govern,'' said a senior source.
''The problem is he's trying to do too much and he blurs the message.''
These were the very concerns raised by backbenchers in caucus on Monday.
This week's federal budget was designed to put a floor under Labor's poll slide. Nobody is expecting the polls - starting with next week's Newspoll - to show an immediate rebound.
''This is about winning the election, not next week's polls,'' said one operator.
With the budget now forecast to return to surplus in 2012-13 - three years earlier than expected a year ago - the government is banking on voters feeling comforted when they enter the polling booth.
Of comfort to Labor is that voters may be switching off the government but they are not moving to Abbott or the Coalition, an occurrence of which Abbott, too, is acutely aware.
With a key rump of votes parked in the middle, Abbott sees his job as to secure them. Rudd needs to get enough of them back.
One government backbencher who is clinging to a marginal seat notes that when people complain to him about Rudd, they draw a comparison with John Howard, not Abbott.
It is a common finding among Labor MPs at the coalface. ''They're pissed off with us but they think he's a crazy bastard,'' said one minister.
Said another: ''No-one's yet focused on Tony versus Kevin.''
The backbencher said the budget had given him a new lease on life and ammunition against the Liberal claim that the stimulus was a waste of money.
''It shows what we did was part of a coherent plan which is getting the budget back to surplus ahead of everyone else in the world,'' he said.
There has been much talk in backbench ranks about party research conducted over the past fortnight which shows marginal and semi-marginal seats in NSW and elsewhere in dire trouble.
Both major parties admit their internal polling reflects the public national polls. Specifically in NSW, seats including Eden-Monaro, Robertson, Macquarie and Macarthur were in peril while things were very tight in Page, Lindsay and Dobell. Bennelong, which Maxine McKew took from John Howard in 2007, is also very tight.
''When you go to Lindsay which had a 6.3 per cent margin, that really starts to become quite serious,'' said a source.
The research shows that Abbott's popularity in the western suburbs is improving.
Outside NSW, there is concern for Corangamite and Deakin in Victoria, Solomon in the Northern Territory, Hasluck in Western Australia and Flynn and Dawson in Queensland.
Between now and the election, Abbott himself will become a prime target.
This week, Rudd called Abbott a threat to the nation's social fabric and the economy. The government ramped up the economic risk line yesterday on the back of Abbott's budget speech and the revelation about his payments idea being knocked off by shadow cabinet.
A ''breathtakingly frightening'' lack of economic knowledge, said Rudd.
When Abbott became leader in December, he was acutely aware of his own colourful and sometimes controversial past. He asked that he be judged ''from this point on''.
''Why do you think he said that?'' said a government operator.
Everything about Abbott would be fair game, he said.
''He's exposed on Work Choices, on health, religious influence on his politics,'' he said.
He cited Abbott's attack on cancer sufferer Bernie Banton during the last election campaign and his many and conflicting stances on climate change.
''There's a lot to work with,'' he said.
And the more the voters saw of Abbott as the election neared, the less they would like.
The Liberals will be doing the same against Rudd, highlighting what Andrew Robb told the Parliament on Thursday was the Prime Minister's fundamentally flawed character.
''The PM and his government have failed to take responsibility for inevitable mistakes. This character weakness worries people. They feel uncertainty about the PM's strength in dealing with whatever lies ahead,'' he said.
''Character is what you do when no one is watching. Do we know this Prime Minister? Does he have the courage of his convictions, or is he a chameleon? A government that believes in nothing will deliver nothing.''
Increasingly, this election is looming as a contest between two unpopular leaders locked in a race to spend less than the other in a bid to grasp the mantle of economic piety.
The election slogan for either side may well be: ''You might not like our bloke but the alternative stinks''.
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