NAIVASHA, Kenya (AP) - Sudanese government and rebel officials signed a permanent cease-fire deal Friday and endorsed details on how to implement their peace plan to end a 21-year civil war in southern Sudan, a conflict blamed for 2 million deaths.
The permanent truce will come into force some 72 hours after the deal was signed in Kenya's lakeside town of Naivasha, said Sayed El-Khatib, spokesman of the government delegation at the talks.
United Nations and U.S. officials hope a solution to the civil war in the south will spur an end to the separate conflict between government-backed forces and rebels in the western Darfur region, where disease and hunger have killed 70,000 since March. Nearly 2 million are believed to have fled their homes since the start of the Darfur crisis.
Sudan's two-decade civil war pitted the Khartoum government, led by Arab Muslims who dominated the north, against rebels made up mainly of Christians and animists, who are the majority in the south. The conflict is blamed for more than 2 million deaths, primarily from war-induced famine and disease.
The deals signed Friday clear the way for the warring sides to sign a comprehensive peace deal in early January in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi.
The newly signed agreements detail how to implement protocols worked out during two years of negotiations _ concerning how to share power and natural resources, including oil; what to do with their armed forces during a six-year transition period; and how to administer three disputed areas in central Sudan.
The protocols were signed during previous rounds of talks, but the warring sides still had to spell out how the deals would be executed, the government agencies that will be responsible for implementation and the source of funds.
Sudanese government and rebel officials wanted all these issues to be worked out in the peace deal to prevent any side from stalling implementation.
"We now have all the components that will form the comprehensive Sudan peace agreement," chief mediator Gen. Lazaro Sumbeiywo said. "Every topic on our agenda has been discussed and agreed on."
Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir, South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki and Kenyan Vice President Moody Awori observed the signing of the last main protocols.
Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
In June 2004, Colin Powell, then U.S. secretary of state, visited Sudan's Darfur region to voice Washington's outrage at the unfolding crisis and labeled the situation "genocide" upon his homecoming. Ten months later, Robert Zoellick, the current U.S. deputy secretary of state, paid a more cordial visit to Sudan and made every effort to avoid using that signifier for intervention. His silence gave voice to a meaningful change in the U.S. approach to Sudan -- Washington's position has drifted from contained activism to strategic indifference on the crisis in Darfur. This disengagement has shifted the responsibility for resolving the crisis to the U.N., E.U. and N.A.T.O.
Washington Quits Darfur, Multilateral Organizations Fill the Void
Once the leading force in pushing for sanctions against Khartoum and peacekeeping intervention forces in Darfur, Washington has reassessed the situation and no longer sees the need to project any strong opinions. The Bush administration actively inserted itself into the north-south peace negotiations by sending John Danforth as a special envoy to Sudan. Once it became clear in 2003 that Khartoum's crackdown on rebel groups and civilians in Darfur might pose a threat to the north-south dialog, Washington quickly became the leading international force pushing for a resolution. [See: "Trying Times in Darfur and the Establishment of International Criminal Law"]
However, even this activist approach was contained by geopolitical realities elsewhere: the war in Iraq began to go badly, the trans-Atlantic dialog was in disrepair, China's fear of losing access to Sudanese oil and Russia's nausea at endorsing any action that would threaten the state's sovereignty -- partly due to Sudan being a major recipient of Russian military equipment -- effectively blocked any robust response from the U.N. Security Council, and Washington's commitment to north-south negotiations prevented it from taking any measures that might scuttle the long delayed resolution.
In this environment, Washington was unable to find a compromise solution to the killings in Darfur other than a series of weak U.N. resolutions and the introduction of a small, uncoordinated peacekeeping mission from the African Union (A.U.) with a mandate so confining as to make the mission's success impossible. Since the end of 2004, several factors have shifted that have made Washington's contained activist role largely unsustainable.
There are three main reasons for Washington's shift toward indifference on the crisis in Darfur. First, the north-south peace agreement has been signed and the southern rebels have integrated themselves into the government in Khartoum, suturing the south's rebuilding to the vitality of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir's government. Secondly, the U.N. voted to endorse an investigation of 51 of Darfur's suspected war criminals to the International Criminal Court (I.C.C.), with which the Bush administration refuses to cooperate. However, it is Khartoum's cooperation with Washington's "war on terrorism" that may have pushed the Bush administration into the position of having no position on Darfur.
Cooperation on the Intelligence Front
Although Sudan remains on Washington's official list of state sponsors of terrorism, Khartoum has been cooperating with the C.I.A. and other U.S. intelligence agencies on issues involving Islamic militants. Since 2001, the U.S. State Department's annual reports on world terrorism patterns have noted Khartoum's assistance. A recent Los Angeles Times article lays out how the relationship evolved from Khartoum's sharing of intelligence files to detaining and expelling Islamic militants from Sudan in close coordination with the C.I.A. Washington believes that leaning on Khartoum too hard for its role in the crisis in Darfur might disrupt the tightly entwined relationship between U.S. and Sudanese intelligence agencies.
Washington demonstrated its change in position with a March 25 fact sheet prepared by the State Department. In this document, Washington argues that the death toll in Darfur is much lower than any previous independent estimates put forth. Whereas the World Health Organization's estimated death toll for March to mid-October 2004 was 70,000, Washington's new statistical assessment of the situation estimates that there may have been as few as 60,000 deaths as a result of the fighting in Darfur to date.
The organization hired by the U.S. Agency for International Development has reported a death toll as high as 400,000. The number 200,000 tends to be the figure at the lower end of most extrapolations, but the U.S. State Department's high-end estimate was 146,000 "excess" deaths. This lower death toll is intended to make Washington's current non-position on Darfur more tenable; however, it also opens the door for other states and organizations to assume the role that the U.S. once played in Darfur.
The U.N., E.U. and N.A.T.O. will now take the lead in bolstering the ability of the A.U. troops to functionally operate in Darfur. The E.U. has pledged to provide the air transport for the thousands of A.U. troops promised to Darfur who have not been able to make the journey as of yet. N.A.T.O. has said that it will make its African debut by supporting the A.U. mission to Darfur, though the support will be under-the-radar so as not to take the spotlight off of the A.U. troops' role. On Friday, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan will pay his second visit to Darfur, following a donors' conference in Ethiopia intended to raise funds and support for the A.U. mission.
Conflict Resolution
The increased presence of multilateral organizations in Darfur, always aimed at supporting the A.U. mission, has been made possible by the exit of a robust U.S. presence in the crisis. However, their presence also means a shift in tactics toward resolving the conflict. It can be expected that any solution to the crisis will not emerge from military intervention or a bold new approach but rather through a course designated by international law.
As the E.U. and U.N. increase their diplomatic presence in Sudan, the long stalled negotiations between the western rebels and Khartoum may be brought back into the spotlight while the I.C.C. investigations will be used as a stick to push Khartoum into accepting a negotiated settlement. Whether or not these tactics will prove successful remains an open question; even with multilateral pressure Darfur will likely continue to bleed for the foreseeable future.
Report Drafted By: Adam Wolfe
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of inquiries@pinr.com. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com.
KHARTOUM, Sudan (AP) - Grief-stricken supporters of a former Sudanese rebel leader rioted in the capital Monday, smashing cars and shops and angrily blaming the government for their hero's death in a helicopter crash.
Despite doubts among the rioters, the southern rebel movement dismissed talk of a plot against Vice President John Garang and sought to keep alive the fragile north-south peace deal he championed for Sudan.
The 60-year-old Garang, who had been Sudan's first vice president for just three weeks, died Saturday along with 13 other people when their helicopter crashed into a mountain in southern Sudan in bad weather.
"I feel like all my hopes are now broken," said Ashraf Abdel-Hafez, sinking his head into his hands. Three weeks ago, the 26-year-old hotel employee beamed with excitement at the promise he saw in Garang's triumphant return to Khartoum. On Monday, he cried.
His Sudan People's Liberation Movement stressed that the crash was an accident, not foul play, and quickly named Garang's longtime deputy, Salva Kiir Mayardit, to succeed him as head of the movement and as president of south Sudan, spokesman Yasser Arman told The Associated Press.
Kiir will also likely be first vice president, according to the January peace agreement that says whoever is Sudan People's Liberation Movement leader will hold that position, said Kenyan Gen. Lazaro Sumbeiywo, a mediator in the peace talks.
On July 9, Garang was inaugurated into a national unity government that was seen as the key to bringing comprehensive peace to Sudan. He was working with the president and second vice president to form a Cabinet by Aug. 9.
"Losing the brother, the doctor, is a huge loss. He is a true peace partner and he has played a big role," President Omar al-Bashir said.
Three days of national mourning have been declared.
Despite the assurances of the rebel movement and the government, hordes of young men filled downtown Khartoum, smashing car windows and tearing off doors, setting fires, looting shops and in some cases chasing pedestrians away with stones. One group stopped a passing journalist and asked, "Are you with us or against us?" and demanded to search his briefcase before they let him pass.
"Murderers! Murderers!" some yelled, alleging the Sudanese government, which had battled Garang's rebel force for two decades before this year's peace deals, may have been behind the crash.
Police and soldiers used tear gas to disperse the larger crowds of Garang supporters, and by midday downtown was nearly empty. The streets leading to the Republican Palace were sealed and many residents and shopkeepers closed their shutters and stayed indoors.
A 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew was imposed, and by dusk only a few people walked the empty streets. Some stopped to stare at the empty shells of burned out cars, but most hurried past. Outside one shop, a small group of people stood talking near a pile of canned and boxed food left by looters.
Witnesses reported at least two people were killed in the clashes. There was no official confirmation of any casualties.
Government and rebel leaders appealed for calm, saying the nation's peace process would remain on track.
In a statement, Kiir promised the leadership 'will continue the vision and the objectives of the movement that Dr. John Garang De Mabior has articulated and hoped to implement."
Jan Pronk, the U.N. secretary-general's special representative in Sudan, mourned Garang but said the peace process would continue.
"The peace agreement is an agreement between two institutions _ the government and the SPLM. It is not dependent on individual persons, even if individual persons have had a very important contribution to it," Pronk said. "I'm fully confident that the government and the SPLM will continue on this road."
Garang was the dominant voice of the south since 1983. A colonel in Sudan's army, he was sent south to quell a rebellion but deserted to form a rebel movement that fought the Muslim government in Kharoum for a share of wealth and political power for the mostly Christian and animist south. More than 2 million people died in the conflict.
The deal and Garang's ascension to the national unity government were signs of hope for others who feel marginalized in Sudan. Many in the east and west, fighting their own battles with Khartoum, considered Garang an advocate.
The charismatic leader was welcomed by more than a million people from all regions of Sudan when he returned to Khartoum on July 8 for the first time since his rebellion began in 1983.
Deng Alor, a senior rebel official speaking from the southern Sudanese town of New Site where Garang's remains were taken, promised an investigation into the crash. He said weather was bad in the area where the accident occurred, but that human error could have been involved. He would not rule out foul play but said his group did not blame the government for the crash.
Although Garang and al-Bashir were once bitter enemies, they hailed each other as brothers since the peace agreement. Other past enemies also became supporters of the south, at least publicly, and even tried their own peace deals with Garang.
The crash recalled the 1994 death of Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana, whose plane was downed as he had been trying to implement a power-sharing deal between fellow Hutus and the rival Tutsis. The Rwandan genocide followed, in which more than 500,000 people were killed.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
