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lee kramer

12/25/04 2:28 AM

#338133 RE: hightecheast #338128

Hi Ken Wilson: Good questions you pose. I'm a day trader but I was a Gold Bug from the mid-sixties thru the early 80's. I knew this because like most bugs I kept getting stepped on. It was clear to me, and a few others back then. To pursue the Vietnam costs government adopted a Guns AND Butter policy. This was unwise and though it took a long time it finally went badly awry: massive deficits and interest rates that went beyond 20%. When rates go this high who wants dollars? They tend to lose purchasing power rather quickly. What to do? Buy gold coins, gold stocks, silver coins, silver stocks. As I recall gold ran from $75 or so an ounce to $875. Silver, ran to $50/oz...I'm talking commodities here. As generals tend to fight prior wars, I'd be surprised if things played out the same way this time. Is the deficit as massive as it was back then? Well, in dollar terms, probably. But as a % of the economy, probably not. Are interest rates flying up and the purchasing power of the dollar dropping like a cement block tossed from the tower of Babel? Not at the moment. Looking at your charts I see one that hits strong; the 10-Year T-Note has made a classic inverted Head & Shoulders bottom after a severe mark-down phase. So [these] rates look higher to me. How far, how fast? I don't know. I'd guess we're not in the parabolic phase in gold but rather in a trading phase. Up, down and so on. Sometimes relationships are clear; other times they are like 25 people stuffed into a little Volkswagon. Have a nice trip to Boston, be careful of Boston drivers, many are cookieputz. See the Big Dig, a 15 billion boondoggle that's been leaking badly of late and of course take a tour of Fenway Paahhk if you can. I think you'll enjoy the city, though I try to avoid it whenever possible, having grown up here in gentler times.