Replies to post #23518 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[otraque]

Threshold trader on BPs. Having said they are invaluable as identifying oversold and overbought conditions,but their levels going into next week , well i quote << In Summary.............although the two main bullish percent indicators remain on BUY signals, they are in football terms sitting at second and long or maybe even third down and a prayer. In other words, 4 weeks ago the bullish percents correctly helped us identify when the market was VERY oversold and due for a bounce.............and the bullish percents helped us in ascertaining that historically, the bounces from oversold levels was approximately 20-25% which we achieved as well. So.........per the 4th paragraph, the most efficient use of the bullish percents is over, they have now bounced to levels where they are not useful and its best to watch the conventional charts as posted throughout the site and they are all suggesting that we are in normally bearish rising wedges to strong resistance and a re-test of lows (or lower) established in early August is likely.>>
a defining <<Bullish Percents is a TRUE gauge of plotting supply and demand for stocks.

When calculating bullish percents, each stock in the index or sector gets 1 VOTE.....the vote is that its either on a BUY or SELL signal. The votes of all the buy and sell signals are summed up and the NET new buy or sell signals is added to the previously plotted buy and sell signals and the result is plotted on a chart scaling from 0 to 100%. For example, if all of the stocks in the NYSE were on SELL signals, the bullish percent would be 0%, conversely, if all the stocks were on a BUY signal, it would be at 100%. Historical records support that overbought market conditions are when the bullish percent for a sector or index reaches the 70% level (50% in some indices / sectors), conversely, they are oversold when at the 30% level. These indicators are best used as contrarian indicators and suggest that one should be increasingly LESS Bullish at the 70% level (50% in some indices / sectors) and LESS Bearish at the 30% level.>>

[mlsoft]

max...

I tend to agree and look for more downside here. The wild card is the 09/11 anniversary, and although I see no reason for it to be market moving, it could. The other things this week are AG talking (always good for a sigh) and a visit to the UN by Bush where he will most likely call for a final attempt at UN resolutions against Saddam, including a demand for completely open and unfettered inspections - lots of luck on getting that.

War with Iraq is coming, and unless something else intervenes, it will come soon. I am convinced that it is necessary, but am not convinced it will be easy or quick. Until the end is in sight there, it is a negative for the markets and I believe that (plus Japan) is what is sending gold up.

Take care.

mlsoft