Replies to post #23478 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[WinLoseOrDraw]

the market hit a low in 1982 that was the same as the high in 1898. the technologcial changes in that near-century absolutely dwarf the changes since.

technology isn't a new thing. globalization isn't a new thing.

same old, same old.

put another way: everything you said could have been said at every other market peak in the past 200 years.

[mlsoft]

"The US economy is the not the same as it was 200 years ago, or even 50 years ago. It's much stronger and healthier - due to globalization. Therefore, the economy must grow more than it's historical averages. Also, increased participation in the stock market throughout classes, and other things like the development of 3rd world countries (which gives the US more opportunity to expand it's markets) causes the US economy to be that much stronger."
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Joemoney....

I think we are about to find that the opposite of your premise is true. Globalization will turn out to be bad in a weak world economy in the same way that it was good in a strong economy. As we head downward, we are pulling all those economies that depend on the US consumer to buy their products (which is most of them) downward with us, and the result will be a global recession. I certainly see nothing to suggest that we will grow more than our historical averages, and you completely miss the fact that we import far more than we export, leaving us the world's largest debtor nation by far. Third world countries buy from us only when we give them the money in advance, and even then only a portion of their purchases are from us. For the US, third world countries are a bottomless money pit.

mlsoft

[sylvester80]

Globalization? Look at Japan. 19 year low. IMO Europe and the US could be looking at their future in Japan. Where does a 19 year low put US and Europe? Not a pretty picture...