mlsoft- thank you for such a thorough response. I'll mark this post and re-read it, a number of times, I imagine. I thought Saville's reasoning was awfully thin for such a big issue, and your analysis is far more compelling. By virtue of the drop immediately after 9/11, he assumes no intervention occurred, without considering, as you suggest, that it was more effective to intervene by goosing things up after the turn began.
I intend to come back to this after I've read some more and reviewed the materials that augie has collected at #board-1280. Right now I need to finish building a playhouse in my backyard for my kids and a few other things. Thanks again.
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