Replies to post #23379 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[epsteinbd]

Very interesting, a bit surprising, rather convincing.

[epsteinbd]

On third reading, it is scary too... unless one likes washing machines. To invest in, that is. And even then...

So, better fishing lines than fishing bottoms ?

[whitelake]

Zeev,"Finally, last week we saw the smallest number of issues traded on the NASDAQ since January of 1984! The number of issues peaked at 6136 in December of 1996 and has been slowly declining since then to the current 3984 issues. Over 2000 company names have merged, failed, moved to the NYSE or otherwise disappeared in six years!"
This is from Tom Veal's AIM newsletter of 8/26/02 http://www.aim-users.com/oldbbs.htm




whitelake

[timtoinv]

That was an excellent post Zeev, where is Kayaker to file these? Thank you, tim

[hiker]

Zeev,

Since Kayaker is no longer compiling a reference list of your posts (perhaps he got overwhelmed since he was listing so many!) would it not be helpful to you & your readers to have a small set of your key posts listed in the thread header?

I'm thinking of posts like the one this responds to, or the general forecast you wrote back in 2000, and perhaps a few other topics (perhaps OBs?).

Also - many thanks for being so free in sharing your thoughts & expertise. I also think that your move to Ihub has proven to be a good one - this seems to be a much more constructive environment than the one at SI.

Best,

Hiker

[wahz]

Thanks for your time Zeev. I think that nicely clarifies the big picture for now.

[boggy]

Dear Zeev-

After reading your post about your outlook for the future of the markets, I wanted to share Richard Russell's recent thoughts:


<<<As for the stock market, we've just had the first 90% downside day. What this 90% day signifies is that the stock market is now open to, and readying itself for -- all-out panic.

I think where we are now is on track for the wide-open panic phase of this bear market. Note, I did not say a panic moment or a panic day, I said a panic phase. The panic phase could take a week or a few weeks or a few months.

Before the panic has ended, stocks will be knocked to their knees, consumers will be in shock, the housing bubble will have burst as will the auto-buying bubble, the July 23 lows will be history, and the "A" wave of this bear market will finally have come to an end.

When the panic phase ends, investors and speculators will be in shock, and the stock market will appear to be shattered -- torn apart, literally in pieces.

That will give us the most "sold-out" market in years. This sold out market will set the base for the corrective (upside) wave "B" of this bear market. The "B" wave should be an upside whopper, and it should carry well into next year. After this corrective "B" leg will come the final "C" leg -- but I'll talk about that when the time comes.

Question -- "Russell, why do you think the coming panic will be so severe?

Answer -- Ironically, the reason I believe it will be so severe is that it has been preceded by the largest load of misplaced bullishness, across-the-board denial, trash talk, and Wall Street baloney, that I have ever seen. It has been preceded by weeks and months of misguided optimism and ignorance concerning the meaning of the primary bear trend.

Instead of recognizing that this is a bear market and therefore preparing for major trouble, the US government has been spending its head off, states and cities have been running up huge deficits, business has loaded up on debt, and consumers have been buying as if a bull market is just starting.

All of this lays the groundwork for shock, surprise and horrendous losses. Frankly, I can't remember a situation like this in the half century that I've been watching markets>>>


If I am to compare his post to yours, I would assume that you both see a drop (Russell feels panic/washout) in the next 1-3 months followed by a cyclical bull (B phase) into 03 followed by the final bear bottom into the end of 2004-5.

Is this what you think? And do you feel that your position approximates Russell?

Please respond and Happy New Year!

[otraque]

Zeev here is a chart i have never beheld before. Someone named Steve Williams went to a lot math calculations to make this chart. It is the DOW/DJIA historical chart ADJUSTED to factor in inflation. http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/DJ1800Inf_20811.gif
Of note, with adjustments for inflation 1982 the beginning of the last secular bull market is lowest point on the downside of the trend aside from 1813. Max

[oeo2oo]

Historical Yearly Record of Listed Companies

Zeev,

You wrote:
The 950 number assumes that the Naz bleeding of listed stocks (a horrendous 1500 to 2000 issues since March 2000, we had about 5300 listed stocks trading daily then and now we average about 3300 to 3500, if someone has better numbers on total Naz issues then and now, please step forward) will finally end here. Don't write off even lower bottoms for the Naz.

Hope this helps:

 
 Number of Listed Companies 
 Yearly Comparison with NYSE and AMEX  
 Month NASDAQ NYSE Amex  
 1975 2,467 1,557 1,215  
 1976 2,456 1,576 1,161  
 1977 2,456 1,575 1,098  
 1978 2,475 1,581 1,004  
 1979 2,543 1,565 931  
 1980 2,894 1,570 892  
 1981 3,353 1,565 867  
 1982 3,264 1,562 834  
 1983 3,901 1,550 822  
 1984 4,097 1,543 792  
 1985 4,136 1,540 783  
 1986 4,417 1,573 796  
 1987 4,706 1,647 869  
 1988 4,451 1,681 896  
 1989 4,293 1,719 859  
 1990 4,132 1,769 859  
 1991 4,094 1,885 860  
 1992 4,113 2,089 814  
 1993 4,611 2,362 869  
 1994 4,902 2,570 824  
 1995 5,122 2,675 791  
 1996 5,556 2,907 751  
 1997 5,487 3,047 771  
 1998 5,068 3,114 770  
 2000 4,734 2,862 765  
 2001 4,109 2,798 691  
 2002 3,843 2,794 682  
  
 * Data through July 2002  
  
 

oeo2oo

[jdaasoc]

Naz seems to have lost some more


Data Set Date: Friday, September 06, 2002 9210 Active Companies

Criteria Results

1 Is In Set({Exchange},[NASD]) 3761
NYSE 2162
AMEX 522

[Fletch]

Zeev,
Much thanks for your Turnip view of the future! There are many very smart people with opinions on what will happen and most want something for their views...............not Zeev. Most aren't as accurate either...............The best market board around.
Thanks again,
Fletch

PS The dollar still doing AOK for some reason. Let's see what Sunday night brings.

[Ballistic]

Happy New Year, Zeev ........

read your commentary ..... fascinating .....

" but I dont see that number until we go through at least three cyclical bear markets within the secular bear market, we are ...."

a question .....
why 3 cyclical bears mkts ???.....
as oppose to 2 ..... ??

i apologize if u mentioned it before .....
but i dont seem to find the explanation ......

thanks for your insight .......

cya
david

[Paul Shread]

Zeev,

>>after a mini secular bull market starting later this year (providing the Iraq situation is resolved) lasting for about 12 to 18 months.<<

This seems to be a change for the turnips - didn't they previously see the possibility of another leg down starting early next year?

Thanks.

Paul