Replies to post #2171 on Your Economy (No Politics) (YE1)

[Bullwinkle]

Hi SteveO, I am looking at these in a number of ways...

First, I am looking at how they have done from 2000 thru 2002 (during the recessionary period).

Second, I am looking at there overall performance since GWB took office.

Third, I am looking at a longer term horizon, something like 4 years. Some vigilance will be required over a longer term because things can change and change quickly.

So if these did well during a recession, a down market, a falling dollar and the economic policy of this administration (and for what I believe will be 4 more years of the same), then I can take reasonable comfort being in these for awhile.

The reason I decided to enter now is mainly because I do not believe the dollar receives much support over the next 4 years as foriegn investment are beginning to hedge their losses with stronger investment vehicles such as other currency, bunds and PM's. The Fed has said as much and there has been some proof of this taking place #msg-4860584 and I also believe that more U$D will start finding its way back home which spells inflation.

The CRB has taken a thumping and looks to be on the move back to the upside. This should play with respect to commoditiy plays such as PCRDX and QRAAX. The inflation hedge of the HSGFX will minimize downside risk as rates rise. TAVIX, a deep value foreign small cap play has been stellar so far. My only concern here is that it does not have a long history so this is one I will be watching more closely than the others. PRPFX which is spread out over a variety of real assets such as PM's, foreign currencies, T-Bills and Notes, etc. should do well in relation to a weakening economy (something I do believe is in process). The last fund which I forgot to mention is RSNRX, a play on natural resources (these funds have been hot and I think that trend will continue for the foreseeable future).

I plan to continue looking for other types of funds to add to this basket such as a purer PM play like TGLDX, BGEIX or VGPMX and some more funds along the lines of utilities, energy and materials. I may add these via ETF's such as XLU, XLE and XLB. I have not made a decision on that yet though...

You could say that all of these plays are based on the current economy, weak U$D, the continued need for energy and materials, the falling dollar and the present administrations past record which looks to be a "more of the same policy"...