The cash from the warrants has to be included in the estimations otherwise they will be too skewed towards the negative. The warrant redemption would raise $116.5M or $4.57/share(using 25.5M shares), and for comparison the entire market cap of the company as of today is only $80M(using 8.9M shares).
Valuation estimation including the cash and using 25.5M o/s:
$8.90(share price) - $4.57(cash) = $4.33
$4.33/$0.93(Expected 2009 eps using 25.5M o/s)
Trailing PE = 4.65
Projections(using expected 2009 trailing eps)
PE of 5 = 9.22(intrinsic value of warrants = $1.72)
PE of 6 = 10.15(intrinsic value of warrants = $2.65)
PE of 7 = 11.08(intrinsic value of warrants = $3.58)
They are expecting 20-30% growth in 2010 so that would dramatically change the potential value of the warrants. The common is not real compelling at present levels, but the warrants I believe will eventually be worth north of $4.00 once CCLTF is discovered. The 10-K should do wonders for that. I don't think it's a far stretch to expect the common to trade in the $11-13 range within the next few months.
-Adam
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