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tryoty

03/24/10 10:51 AM

#206758 RE: Lickety Split #206747

When you're staring at a half billion dollar price tag for a long term rig contract you make DAMN sure your analysis is accurate. If that means recalculating everything 10 times then you recalculate everything 10 times. This would've been SO MUCH EASIER on all of us if we had done our homework to understand how long all of this would take. We didn't. Shame on us, myself included. That's water under the bridge now.

You are right that computers blast through calculations like nobodies business. What calculations? Oh, you mean those that are determined by the geologic/fluid models. But wait, those models get re-calibrated, sometimes scrapped and redeveloped, when drilling data is incorporated. So we are waiting for the geologists/engineers/mathematicians/computer guru's to modify/create computer models that accurately predict the drilling results they actually got. In the event that their drilling results were significantly different than their initial model predicted they would be forced to do a complete remodeling of the JDZ.

It's only been 2 months since the final well reached total depth. There are plenty of people working plenty hard to incorporate ALL of the drilling results into a potentially all new computer model. Only when they get that model to retroactively predict the actual data they got from the 5 wells will they have confidence that it will accurately predict future drills. Then and only then will they move forward. With the money involved they have to be sure there won't be any [more] surprises.

Be happy it is taking so long. It means they are making progress. The alternative would be the unthinkable.

This is only my opinion on how things work and what might be taking so long.