Krom, from a "fraidy cat's" point of view, the things I see that makes this a gamble to hold at this point:
Suppose the drilling results say nothing except that more exploration is required. Then Sinopec commits to drill 1 more well in each block over the next 2 years, as required. Then they go forward to acquire their own blocks in the EEZ and/or additional JDZ blocks when auctioned which they will own free and clear without any free carry "partners". They decide to focus on those blocks. Meanwhile, erhe is forced to wait what may be another 4 years before commerciality is even known. Plus another 5 to 10 years on top of that before any royalties flow in. This would mean no assets to leverage for any type of diversification and current cash will burn up, regardless of how much gas or oil might exist.
How could this happen? What if JDZ and STP value the power and cash hoard of China higher than the goodwill of SEO and his questionably won rights. Political powers change and what if there is new control that wants to squeeze him out? Wouldn't be too hard to do. I mean even now, in spite of what you have already deemed to be commercial oil, and in spite of all the billions of barrels many here "know" are down there, the price still can't get over a buck.
I'm not saying this scenario is right or wrong, but it is a possibility. Everything is not as positively golden as the loudest longs continue to say over and over. This is still a huge gamble and if you think it is impossible for the stock to be 10 cents in the blink of an eye, just consider gas not oil or no desire for development for at least 10 years or more.
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