Taiwan's pro-independence parties have suffered an upset defeat in legislative elections.
While the result is likely to please China's leaders, who are angry about the island's drift away from Beijing's sacred goal of unification the outcome is most probably going to irritate Bush.
The United States is at war with Beijing and cites China as the number one threat. #msg-3379438
Clearly, ending North Korea's nuclear crisis or even eliminating "evil" is not the ultimate goal of the US. What the US really wants, and is exploiting the North Korea "crisis" to achieve, is to deploy sufficient military forces and resources in the western Pacific (especially close to Taiwan) so as to encourage Taiwan independence, thereby checking China's growth as a power that might compete with the US. Not long ago, the US and Japan were talking about using Japan's Shimoji Island as a military base. Only about 200 miles from Taiwan, Shimoji has a "runway capable of safely handling a fully loaded F-15C fighter jet", observed James Brooke in the New York Times.
If some day Taiwan becomes independent (or rather the 51st US state), it would not surprise the world. Yet it would reduce China to a state that may never be able to challenge the US. If that day comes, obviously the US should be grateful to North Korea, for it has created a perfect smokescreen for the US to be well positioned to diminish China. #msg-4722542
To this end Taiwan intends to build a "nuclear test ground" or "missile base". #msg-4682068
Ordinary Americans do not seem to support Taiwanese independence either. A recent poll by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) suggests that 61% of the respondents were opposed to US military involvement in a People's Republic of China-Taiwan conflict, and only 33% would support sending troops to defend the island. If a conflict were initiated by Taiwan, probably even fewer Americans would want to shed their blood to defend an independent Taiwan. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4778152
61% of the respondents were opposed to US military involvement in a People's Republic of China-Taiwan conflict. What is not being considered is that Taiwan is but part of the issue in the United States war with Beijing.
China objects to Bush’s policies in the Asia-Pacific region. Bush will lead us into a war with China we cannot win irregardless of Taiwan. The American people in reelecting Bush did not do their homework. China’s neighborhood does not include only Taiwan.
According to a Chinese white paper, Beijing sees “new negative developments” in the Asia-Pacific region. These include a strengthening US military presence and bilateral military alliances in China’s neighbourhood, and US development of a theatre missile defence system and plans to deploy it in Asia. “The Taiwan Straits situation is complicated and grim,” the white paper states. #msg-4383869
Beyond the ‘neighborhood’ issue lurks the problem that Bush intends to control all oil throughout the world in an effort to bring China to its knees. This is not about securing needed supplies of oil and gas for the United States this is about attempting to control the world through want of energy.
Ultimately China and others will fight. The world will revolt, Bush leaves no choice. Taiwan is not the sole issue, never has been.
In a world that runs on oil, the nation that controls the flow of oil has great strategic power. U.S. policy-makers want leverage over the economies of competitors -- Western Europe, Japan and China -- that are more dependent on Middle Eastern oil. #msg-4798276
The U.S. is not interested in Caspian oil to supply its own internal industry. The U.S. is grabbing for control of the Caspian oil fields because other countries need this oil--and because the U.S. wants to control them. Other imperialist rivals--including Germany and Japan--are "energy poor" and need access to oilfields outside their borders. Most Third World countries are heavily dependent on imported oil. #msg-3775550 #msg-4799018
This time, Beijing kept a low profile in Taiwan and Hong Kong polls, and its allies prevailed. By Mark Magnier Times Staff Writer
December 17, 2004
BEIJING — China's leadership is 2-for-2 over the last six months at "winning" elections in which it isn't a candidate.
In Taiwan, for the first time in years, voters didn't disappoint the mainland, delivering a defeat to pro-independence President Chen Shui-bian in legislative elections last week. Three months ago, voters in Hong Kong also delivered a setback to the pro-democracy camp. After two years of democracy marches, broad calls for universal suffrage and growing support for pro-democracy candidates, the tide seemed to reverse as Beijing's allies did far better than expected.
A postelection look at Beijing's action — or, more accurately, lack of it — in the two campaigns suggests that China is becoming more nuanced at the democratic game than in elections past. Although it has hardly lost its appetite for throwing its weight around, it's also learned to dance a little better.
Beijing waited until Wednesday, four days after the election, to criticize Chen's campaign rhetoric. And then it did so in a relatively restrained way compared with its bitter denunciations in past Taiwanese elections and its intimidating missile tests before the 1996 presidential contest. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and is extremely suspicious of any moves toward independence.
Likewise, leading up to Hong Kong's September legislative elections, Beijing used a combination of carrots and sticks that was more subtle and effective than in the past.
It paraded a host of luminaries through Hong Kong to engender patriotism and closer ties with the mainland, including visits by Olympic stars, astronauts and People's Liberation Army honor guards. And it opened the economic taps by loosening rules on mainland tourists and expanding economic integration with neighboring Chinese provinces.
"They're getting a better sense how the election game is played," said Michael DeGolyer, a political scientist with Hong Kong Baptist University and head of a multiyear project monitoring democracy in the former British colony. "They're focusing on playing the game rather than just giving orders."
Those looking for clues to the shifting power balance across the Taiwan Strait after the latest election need look no further than the signals coming out of Beijing and Taipei over the last few days.
In breaking China's official silence Wednesday, Li Weiyi, a spokesman at Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office, criticized several of Chen's core election themes. His assured presentation for the cameras came less than 24 hours after Chen's mea culpa in Taipei in which he stepped down as chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, took responsibility for the poor showing and admitted to several election-related mistakes.
Members of his pro-independence camp, known as the pan-greens, have been busy licking their wounds and figuring out their next move, evidenced by several canceled speeches in which Chen and key allies had presumably hoped to trumpet their victory.
Democrats in Hong Kong, meanwhile, find themselves in a similar mode after their September setback. The head of Hong Kong's main opposition Democratic Party, Yeung Sum, recently stepped down to take responsibility for its poor showing.
Others are trying to unify the democracy movement and find new themes in order to regain momentum lost when China in effect blocked their calls for universal suffrage by 2007 and 2008.
Most analysts doubt that China has changed its fundamental outlook toward democracy. On the contrary, it's been the first to say it reserves the right to do whatever it takes if things go beyond what it considers acceptable. That includes independence in Taiwan and outright opposition to Beijing's policies in Hong Kong.
Nor is it clear to what extent Beijing's more nuanced approach is ultimately responsible for the recent legislative outcomes in Taiwan and Hong Kong, or whether the movements hit a wall of their own accord due to infighting, voters' desire for greater political balance and technical factors associated with the complex voting systems in both jurisdictions.
Furthermore, although Beijing's adversaries in Taiwan and Hong Kong may be down, they are far from knocked out. "It doesn't mean they've turned the tables," said Liu Kin-ming, editorial page editor at Hong Kong's Apple Daily newspaper.
Although arrogance got the better of Hong Kong's pro-democracy legislators and Taiwan's pan-green camp in the most recent elections, both movements have grass-roots appeal that over time could strengthen their popularity.
And both camps actually scored modest gains. It's only when they are judged according to their inflated expectations that they failed.
Taiwan's ruling DPP, for instance, picked up two seats in Saturday's election, and pro-democracy forces picked up one in Hong Kong in September.
Furthermore, electoral reforms in both locations will increase the number of directly elected seats, arguably favoring those with better campaigning skills and a more populist message.
In attacking its political adversaries in Taiwan and Hong Kong, Beijing has frequently targeted a handful of "splittist" leaders it accuses of leading the people blindly toward instability.
"Chen's ambition and energy can never be underestimated," said Zhu Weidong, a Taiwan expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. "If a way within the system is blocked, chances are he'll try to find a way outside."
Far more worrisome over the long term for Beijing, however, are increasingly independent electorates in both places who compel their leaders to follow them, whether toward a stronger Taiwanese identity or greater Hong Kong electoral rights.
Beijing is also grappling with the prospect that this trend is not confined to Taiwan and Hong Kong but increasingly evident on the mainland, directly threatening the power of the Communist Party.
China has argued that the Middle Kingdom is not yet ready for democracy, given the nation's low education levels and lack of maturity. Yet it has allowed polling at the village level, presumably among the least educated parts of China. And it continues to resist full elections in Hong Kong, presumably among China's best educated, most cosmopolitan areas.
For the time being, Beijing has gained a bit of breathing room. And for that, it can thank the judgment of the very voters it has often been distrustful of.
Yin Lijin of The Times' Beijing Bureau contributed to this report.
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