Replies to post #12366 on Mostly: Classical

[ItsAllCyclical]

(edit) >> Have you no concerns about the lack of 'fine print' restrictions that would prevent the ETF from "leasing" out (on a short term basis) a sufficient amount of bullion to pressure the cash market into driving the entire PM complex lower whenever the banksters/COMEX commerials had their short positions in order? <<

Concerned? Yes, but what can I really do? As I said I do not think it'll change the LT picture. We keep running a supply decifit w/respect to gold every year that is only met by CB selling. Same w/silver. If they want to manipulate gold to the point where it's no longer appreciating then they'll simply make this an even longer gold bull, albiet one that'll be slower to appreciate. There are still many gold investments that'll do well with a new trading range on gold of $375 to $450.

The problem w/the conspiracy buffs is once you subscribe to that train of thought, then every time you're wrong ST about gold it must be the "CABAL" knocking down gold prices. If those who buy gold simply buy the physical vs playing in the BS world of COMEX much would be solved.

Suppose the PPT does short GLD into the Abyss. How does that change the FA picture w/respect to the Dollar? Once imbalances become too great you'd see long buying combined w/some short covering. Again, I think if you step back and look at the LT picture w/respect to gold and silver it's exactly what you'd expect after a 20-year bear market. Now granted I think both should be higher by now and that may be the PPT influence, but all they are doing is controlling the overall rate of increase/decrease - not the final direction. Same with the Naz and Nikkie bubbles of which I think both gov's play a part in managing the decline.

Just my swag. This is not my forte. If you manage to get enough people together to influence the SEC I'll happily join your protest.

If the PPT wants to knock gold back to $400 again let them. I'll happily accept that gift as it would represent a great risk/reward ratio again. On average I'm about 30% exposed here to PMs.

I think yesterday's smackdown was $5-7 influenced the PPT or shorts and the rest was weak specs getting overextended and overconfident again.

At this point China and Japan know they "trapped" w/respect to the Dollar. I'm sure they would love to have less exposure. Knock gold down far enough again and they'll be buyers. Of course we won't really hear about any official buying until years from now after they've dug themselves out of this currency/trading problem.

[lvlamb]

Dan,
Yeah! Yeah!

Bank of NY: I presume the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That bank holds about 15k Tons, half of all known central bank reserves of gold. Chances are it was at the center of a money laundry scheme, say 50-50? <g>
Corollary, HSBC bullions can as well be here physically.

The gold ETF. If I remember correctly, it is a former Calpers big shot who has been hired to engineer the fund. Goal was to allow pensions funds to buy the metal. Other goal, create a demand for 250Tons of bullion and rise the price.
- 250 Tons is five times the amount of London based goldbullion, hence a bit overstated
- 250 Ton is the maximum total expected to be in the fund, hence a one shot demand, not a long term lasting support.

ETFs are nice trading vehicles for the arbs, the third wheel of a system: futures vs. ETF (paper basket) vs. "cash". These 3 elements are present on almost all markets and you can effectively write a program to trade the spreads and to make prices reach a level on which the crowd will act as a signal. And you know what the crowd will do and have advanced knowledge (as you wrote the program).

GLD: read the prospectus. I've read some, not all of it. Looked like the usual Nigerian spam with other names <vbg>. People got caught in Nigerian spams, people don't read the prospectus.

A "cabal". Not more on gold than in normal business. How do you call a CEO who has to be fired because of incompetence, but gets umpteen millions of Dollars as contract breach? Or a CEO who rewards himself and some employees with "options", hereby looting the shareholders? Or sell side broker's boiling rooms? Or the funds "indexing" (more and more funds buying an index of a finite number of shares)? Or countries running huge deficits and printing presses? Or countries refusing to align on international countries because it would harm their economy?
Normal business became dirty business, run by crooks. That is the "cabal": you can loot as much as you want with the proper hardware and some deep pockets. And your pockets are deep, as the regulatory bodies which controls you are yourself and your peers.
If you are not prepared to be lose against BigBizness (any bizness) you have no place in the markets.

Instead of whining against the "cabal" try to find their weak spot.
There is no "cabal" rather dirty bizness wherever you look.